Raydium (RAY) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. LaunchLab Adoption & Fee Growth (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Raydium’s LaunchPad generated $900k daily fees in August 2025 – surpassing swap revenue for the first time. The program distributes 50k $RAY to active users, with another 50k reserved for future rewards. Recent integrations like Solstice Finance’s USX stablecoin ($160M TVL) improved liquidity for large trades.

What this means: Protocol fee growth directly funds $RAY buybacks (6% annualized yield at current prices). Successful launches like bonk_fun ($575k fees in 3 days) demonstrate potential to convert speculative activity into sustainable revenue.

2. Solana DeFi Market Share Battle (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Raydium processed $4.44B in daily DEX volume on Solana in September 2025, but Pump.fun captured 44% of memecoin launches. Solana’s total DEX volume grew 60% MoM to $2.7B weekly, intensifying competition.

What this means: While Raydium remains Solana’s liquidity backbone, its 0.13 turnover ratio (vs Uniswap’s 0.41) signals thinner markets. Sustaining dominance requires outperforming Serum upgrades and Pump.fun’s AMM pivot (CoinDesk).

3. U.S. Regulatory Overhang (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Raydium blocks users from the U.S. and 14 other jurisdictions – regions representing 27% of global crypto market cap. Recent GDP data skepticism (TokenPost) could accelerate crackdowns on DeFi platforms.

What this means: Restricted markets cap Raydium’s user growth potential. Mainstream adoption of Solana tokenized stocks (via xStocks) might face delays if regulators target cross-border DeFi integrations.

Conclusion

Raydium’s price trajectory hinges on balancing LaunchLab’s fee momentum against regulatory headwinds and Solana’s hyper-competitive DEX landscape. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.44 is critical resistance – a breakout could target the $4.07 extension level. Will protocol buybacks outpace whale profit-taking at these levels?