Latest Rootstock Infrastructure Framework (RIF) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: RIF broke below its 7-day SMA ($0.0598) and 30-day SMA ($0.0586), with the RSI(7) at 25.83 (oversold) and MACD histogram negative (-0.00058).

What this means: The oversold RSI typically hints at exhaustion, but sustained trading below moving averages suggests weak buying interest. The MACD divergence implies bearish momentum could persist unless bulls reclaim $0.058 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

What to look out for: A close above $0.058 could stabilize prices, while failure risks a drop to $0.054 (swing low from technical data).

2. Hard Fork Preparations (Mixed Impact)

Overview: CoinEx announced it will suspend RIF deposits/withdrawals starting October 1 for a network upgrade (CoinEx).

What this means: While upgrades often signal long-term health, short-term liquidity constraints (halted transfers) and uncertainty about upgrade outcomes may pressure prices. Historical data shows tokens often dip pre-fork as traders hedge risks.

3. TVL-Price Divergence (Bearish Sentiment)

Overview: Rootstock’s TVL grew steadily since 2023, but RIF’s price remains 82% below its 2021 peak (The Defiant).

What this means: Investors may question RIF’s utility in Rootstock’s DeFi expansion, especially after Avalon Labs’ recent Bitcoin-collateralized lending launch failed to boost sentiment. Weak price-TVЛ correlation suggests skepticism about tokenomics or adoption pace.

Conclusion

RIF’s dip reflects technical breakdowns, pre-fork jitters, and skepticism about its role in Rootstock’s growth. While network upgrades could strengthen fundamentals long-term, the token faces immediate headwinds from bearish charts and cautious sentiment.

Key watch: Can RIF hold $0.054 support ahead of the October 1 upgrade, and will post-fork trading volumes signal renewed confidence?

Deep Dive

1. Network Upgrade Speculation (Mixed Impact)

Overview: CoinEx announced support for RIF’s network upgrade and hard fork on September 16, 2025, though specifics like timing remain unclear. Historically, such upgrades can drive short-term speculation about protocol improvements.

What this means: While upgrades often signal long-term development, the lack of details creates uncertainty. The 128% surge in RIF’s 24h trading volume suggests traders are front-running potential bullish catalysts, but weak follow-through (only +0.14% price gain) hints at skepticism.

What to look out for: Confirmation of upgrade timelines or technical details from the RIF team.

2. Technical Rebound From Oversold Levels (Bullish Impact)

Overview: RIF’s 4h RSI hit 22.04 on August 1, 2025 (CoinMarketCap), signaling extreme oversold conditions. The current RSI14 at 47.28 shows partial recovery but remains neutral, leaving room for further upside.

What this means: Short-term traders often exploit oversold RSI readings for mean-reversion plays. The price holding above the 30-day SMA ($0.0585) suggests near-term support, though bearish MACD divergence (-0.00018) warns of fading momentum.

Key level: A break above the 7-day SMA ($0.0614) could signal renewed bullish momentum.

3. Altcoin Market Sentiment Shift (Neutral Impact)

Overview: The crypto altcoin season index rose to 72 (+2.86% in 24h), reflecting capital rotation into smaller-cap tokens. However, RIF’s muted response (+0.14% vs. market-wide +1.46%) implies weaker relative demand.

What this means: While improving altcoin sentiment provided a tailwind, RIF’s underperformance suggests coin-specific headwinds, possibly due to its 2025 derivatives delistings (e.g., Flipster’s April 2025 perpetuals removal).

Conclusion

RIF’s minor gain reflects a tug-of-war between upgrade speculation and lingering skepticism, amplified by oversold technicals. The token’s weak response to broader altcoin strength highlights its niche positioning and reduced derivatives access.

Key watch: Can RIF hold above $0.0585 (30-day SMA) to sustain the rebound, or will fading upgrade hype trigger profit-taking?