Latest Rune (RUNE) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Oversold Technicals Spark Relief Rally (Mixed Impact)

Overview: RUNE’s RSI-14 hit 40.76 (neutral but near oversold) after weeks of selling, while its price fell below the 200-day EMA ($1.40). The bounce from $1.17 (Fibonacci 78.6% support) suggests traders are capitalizing on undervalued levels.

What this means: The relief rally lacks strong momentum – MACD remains bearish (-0.0107 histogram), and volume (24h $1.25M) is 50% below June peaks. However, the 225% surge in volume vs. the prior day signals short-term speculative interest.

Key watch: A close above $1.34 (50% Fibonacci) could extend gains, while a drop below $1.17 risks retesting yearly lows.

2. THORChain Network Upgrades & Solana Integration (Bullish Impact)

Overview: THORChain’s July 16 v3.8.0 upgrade (CoinEx) improved network stability, while native Solana integration (@wagmidotglobal) went live, expanding cross-chain swaps to a top-5 blockchain.

What this means: Solana’s $751B derivatives volume and DeFi activity could drive demand for RUNE as the settlement asset. The protocol also reduced swap fees by 37.5% (0.16% → 0.10%) in Q2 2025 to incentivize usage.

Key watch: Monitor Solana-based RUNE liquidity pools – TVL growth here would confirm integration success.

3. Altcoin Season Momentum (Mixed Impact)

Overview: The Altcoin Season Index surged 63.89% in 30 days to 59/100, while BTC dominance fell to 57.1% (down 3.8% monthly). RUNE’s 24h rally aligns with capital rotating into mid-cap alts.

What this means: RUNE’s $6B market cap and DeFi niche position it as a beta play on risk appetite. However, the crypto Fear & Greed Index remains “Neutral” (40/100), limiting upside potential.

Key watch: ETH’s 14.24% market share – a breakout above 15% could amplify altcoin rallies.

Conclusion

RUNE’s rebound reflects technical bargain-hunting and progress on cross-chain utility, but macroeconomic headwinds (crypto market cap down 5.17% weekly) and weak momentum indicators suggest caution.

Key watch: Can RUNE hold above its 7-day SMA ($1.24) to confirm a trend reversal, or will shrinking open interest (-6.9% derivatives) trigger another leg down?

Deep Dive

1. Margin Policy Shift (Bearish Impact)

Overview: On 29 June 2025, Binance lowered RUNE’s collateral ratio for Portfolio Margin accounts from 70% to 55%, aligning it with riskier assets like SUSHI and ORDI. This forced some traders to reduce leverage or face liquidations.

What this means: The change reduced RUNE’s perceived stability as collateral, prompting margin traders to unwind positions. RUNE’s 24h trading volume spiked 60.6% to $1.02M, suggesting urgent selling.

What to look out for: Further adjustments to collateral policies by major exchanges like CoinEx, which supported RUNE’s network upgrade on 16 July.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: RUNE broke below its 7-day SMA ($1.29) and Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level ($1.26), with RSI at 42.97 (neutral but trending downward). The MACD histogram turned negative (-0.00789), confirming bearish momentum.

What this means: Technical traders likely exited positions after the $1.26 support failed, targeting the next key level at $1.19 (2025 swing low). The pivot point at $1.26 now acts as resistance.

What to look out for: A close above $1.35 (30-day SMA) could signal recovery, while a drop below $1.19 risks accelerating losses.

3. DeFi Credit Concerns (Mixed Impact)

Overview: S&P’s 8 August B- rating for Sky Protocol (comparable to Congo’s sovereign debt) highlighted systemic risks in DeFi, including governance centralization and regulatory gaps.

What this means: While THORChain isn’t directly rated, the report eroded confidence in decentralized lending models. RUNE’s 30-day correlation with ETH (-23% vs BTC’s -69%) suggests it’s still tied to DeFi sentiment shifts.

Conclusion

RUNE’s drop reflects a mix of technical triggers and sector-wide caution, compounded by margin policy changes. While the protocol’s cross-chain utility (e.g., Solana integration via Rujira) offers long-term potential, short-term sentiment remains fragile.

Key watch: Can THORChain’s node operator growth (targeting 500+ decentralized validators) counterbalance selling pressure from margin adjustments? Monitor the $1.19–$1.26 range for directional clues.