Deep Dive
1. Token Unlock Impact (Bearish)
Overview: A 0.9% ($7.6M) token unlock occurred on Sep 26, releasing 84.27M SAHARA to early backers and team members. This follows a pattern of unlocks contributing to dilution, with $6.9M unlocked in July 2025 causing similar declines.
What this means: Unlocks increase circulating supply, creating sell pressure as recipients often cash out. SAHARA’s turnover ratio (0.21) indicates low liquidity, magnifying price impact. Historical data shows SAHARA dropped 18% after July’s unlock due to front-running by traders.
What to watch for: Next unlock scheduled for Oct 26 (0.9% of supply). Sustained selling could push prices toward $0.075 (June 2025 lows).
2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish)
Overview: SAHARA broke below the $0.095 support (July 2025 swing low) on Sep 22, with RSI (14-day: 35.8) signaling bearish momentum but not yet oversold. The MACD histogram (-0.0011) confirms downward acceleration.
What this means: The loss of $0.095 invalidated the bullish structure formed after July’s DSP launch rally. Fibonacci retracement suggests next support at $0.0847 (78.6% level). Weak volume (-25% vs. July’s peak) indicates limited buying interest.
Key level to watch: A close below $0.078 (current 2025 low) could trigger panic selling.
3. Market Sentiment & AI Sector Rotation (Mixed)
Overview: The broader crypto market fell 2.1% in 24h, with Bitcoin dominance rising to 57.7% as capital shifts to safer assets. SAHARA’s -3% underperformed the market, reflecting project-specific risks.
What this means: AI tokens face headwinds despite the sector’s 2025 hype. SAHARA’s -75% drop from its July ATH ($0.31) highlights fading momentum post-DSP launch, with investors questioning adoption metrics.
Conclusion
SAHARA’s decline stems from token unlocks eroding confidence, technical breakdowns, and a risk-off shift in crypto markets. While the project’s AI-data monetization thesis remains intact, near-term risks dominate.
Key watch: Can SAHARA hold $0.078 support, or will October’s unlock deepen losses? Monitor exchange inflows and developer updates for signs of renewed demand.