Deep Dive
1. Profit-Taking After Rally (Bearish Impact)
Overview: SPX surged 58% in the past week, recovering all September losses and hitting early August price levels. This triggered retail profit-taking, with $2.1M in outflows reported (AMBCrypto).
What this means: Sharp rallies often lead to short-term sell-offs as traders lock in gains. SPX’s RSI7 hit 81.45 (overbought) before the dip, signaling overheating. Retail exits coincided with reduced spot demand, creating downward pressure.
What to look out for: Sustained outflows below $370K/day could stabilize prices, while a rebound above $1.50 may reignite bullish sentiment.
2. Technical Resistance Rejection (Mixed Impact)
Overview: SPX faced rejection at the $1.47 resistance level on October 5, a key Fibonacci retracement zone. This mirrored its September 21 drop when it failed to hold $1.47 (AMBCrypto).
What this means: Repeated failures at $1.47–$1.50 eroded trader confidence. The pivot point at $1.60 now acts as overhead resistance, while immediate support sits at $1.18–$1.20. A break below $1.18 risks a deeper correction toward $1.06 (78.6% Fibonacci level).
3. Broader Market Weakness (Bearish Impact)
Overview: The total crypto market cap fell 2.74% in 24h, with Bitcoin dominance rising to 58.16%. Altcoins like SPX underperformed as capital rotated toward BTC (CoinMarketCap).
What this means: SPX’s 24h decline outpaced the market (-9.85% vs. -2.74%), reflecting its high-beta nature. Derivatives data showed rising open interest (+6.34% in 24h), suggesting leveraged longs faced liquidations during the drop.
Conclusion
SPX’s dip reflects a mix of localized profit-taking, technical resistance struggles, and broader risk-off sentiment. While the mid-term uptrend remains intact (58% weekly gain), short-term traders are reassessing positions amid market turbulence.
Key watch: Can SPX hold $1.18 support, or will Bitcoin’s dominance push altcoins lower? Monitor hourly closes above $1.35 for bullish reversal signals.