Terra (LUNA) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Network Upgrades & Burns (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Binance confirmed support for Terra’s August 15, 2025 network upgrade, ensuring uninterrupted trading (Binance). Separately, the SEC mandated burning one-third of LUNC tokens (linked to Terra Classic) by September 5, 2025 as part of a $4.5B settlement (TheMoonHailey).

What this means: Upgrades could improve network efficiency, but LUNA’s price remains decoupled from LUNC burns. The SEC’s burn directive targets Terra Classic (LUNC), not LUNA 2.0, limiting direct supply impact. However, sentiment spillovers are possible if LUNC volatility spikes.

2. Do Kwon’s Guilty Plea (Bearish Bias)

Overview: Terra’s co-founder pleaded guilty to fraud on August 12, 2025, admitting to misleading investors pre-2022 collapse (Axios). While resolving legal ambiguity, the admission reinforces LUNA’s association with one of crypto’s largest failures.

What this means: The plea removes trial-related headline risks but solidifies LUNA’s reputation as a “recovery play” rather than a growth asset. Historical parallels (e.g., FTX) suggest such events often cap upside until new narratives emerge.

3. DeFi Ecosystem Revival (Bullish Potential)

Overview: Ruji Holdings acquired Station Wallet (July 31, 2025), Terra’s primary staking interface, signaling infrastructure reinvestment (CoinMarketCap). Additionally, new LUNA/USDC liquidity pools launched on TerraSwap aim to improve stablecoin utility (CoinMarketCap).

What this means: Wallet stability and deeper liquidity could attract developers, though LUNA’s TVL remains 98% below its 2022 peak. Success hinges on migrating dApps from Terra Classic – only 44 projects exist on LUNA 2.0 as of June 2025 (OKX).

Conclusion

LUNA’s path hinges on distancing itself from Terra Classic’s legacy while proving its rebuilt chain can sustain DeFi activity. The guilty plea’s closure vs. ecosystem growth creates a neutral-to-cautious outlook short-term. Watch the 30-day RSI (42.83) – a break above 50 could signal momentum, while failure to hold $0.135 (June 2025 low) may retest all-time lows. Can LUNA’s 44 dApps triple before the next upgrade cycle?