Latest TerraClassicUSD (USTC) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakout (Bullish Impact)

Overview: USTC surged past the $0.0135 resistance level on August 19, hitting a 24-hour high of $0.01435. The 24-hour trading volume spiked 30% to $5.33M, confirming bullish conviction.

What this means: The breakout above $0.0135 – a level that previously capped gains in July – suggests renewed trader interest. The MACD histogram (-0.0000347) shows bearish momentum fading, while RSI (47.57) leaves room for further upside before overbought conditions.

What to look out for: Sustained closes above the 200-day EMA ($0.0143) could target the $0.015 psychological barrier.

2. Supply Reduction via Burns (Bullish Impact)

Overview: On August 19, 39,800 USTC were burned through wallet transfers, with an additional 9,950 tokens allocated to community pools. This follows a cumulative 5.18B USTC burned since May 2022.

What this means: Burns reduce sell pressure – the circulating supply has dropped 12% YTD to 5.59B. With Binance yet to implement USTC burns (unlike LUNC), further supply cuts could amplify scarcity effects.

3. Post-Upgrade Momentum (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Binance completed support for Terra Classic’s v3.5.0 upgrade on August 15, reactivating the Market Module critical for on-chain USTC functionality.

What this means: While the upgrade improved technical foundations, its price impact lagged – USTC dipped 3% post-upgrade before the current rally. This suggests traders are pricing in long-term utility gains rather than immediate effects.

Conclusion

USTC’s rebound combines technical factors, supply dynamics, and delayed optimism about infrastructure upgrades. However, the token remains 98.6% below its $1 peg and faces ongoing regulatory headwinds from Do Kwon’s guilty plea.

Key watch: Can USTC hold above the 200-day EMA ($0.0143) through August 22’s U.S. trading session? Failure here might trigger profit-taking from swing traders.

TLDR TerraClassicUSD (USTC) fell 1.45% in the past 24h to $0.0134, underperforming the broader crypto market (-1.15%). Three key factors drove the decline:

1. Regulatory aftershocks – Do Kwon's Aug 12 fraud guilty plea renewed scrutiny (The CCPress)
2. Technical resistance – Failed breakout below critical $0.014 Fibonacci level
3. Market skepticism – Mixed reactions to Terra Classic's Aug 15 v3.5.0 upgrade

Deep Dive

1. Regulatory Headwinds (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon pleaded guilty to fraud charges on August 12 (The CCPress), reviving concerns about USTC's regulatory risks. This followed March 2025 EU delistings under MiCA regulations that classified USTC as non-compliant.

What this means:
The guilty plea reinforces USTC's association with one of crypto's largest collapses ($40B in 2022). While USTC now operates independently, the legal overhang continues to deter institutional interest and complicates exchange relisting efforts.

2. Technical Rejection (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
USTC failed to hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.0163) this week. The MACD histogram turned negative (-0.000033) on August 20, signaling weakening momentum.

What this means:
Traders are watching the $0.0135 pivot point – a close below this level could trigger stops toward $0.0124 (yearly low). The RSI at 49.91 shows neutral positioning, but declining volume (-25.94% 24h) suggests fading conviction.

3. Upgrade Uncertainty (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Binance-backed Terra Classic v3.5.0 upgrade went live August 15, aiming to restore USTC/LUNC functionality through Market Module reactivation (Kanalcoin).

What this means:
While the upgrade improved technical fundamentals, price action shows skepticism – USTC is down 4.8% since implementation. Some community members allege "price suppression," noting developer activity hasn't translated to demand (CMC forums).

Conclusion

USTC faces a trifecta of regulatory ghosts, technical weakness, and delayed upgrade benefits. The 24h drop reflects crypto's "sell the news" tendency toward complex recoveries. Key watch: Can Terra Classic validators finalize the USTC re-peg roadmap before September?