Tharwa (TRWA) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Genesis Airdrop Liquidation Risk (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Tharwa’s Season 1 Genesis airdrop concludes with a snapshot 3 months post-launch (likely ~August 2025). The event allocates TRWA to early users based on protocol activity, with claims opening post-snapshot. Historical patterns suggest airdrop recipients often sell tokens upon claimability, especially after rallies like TRWA’s 86% 90-day gain.

What this means:
Immediate sell pressure could intensify if a significant portion of the 7B circulating supply (70% of total) enters markets post-claim. The weighted conversion curve aims to deter Sybil attacks (Tharwa Docs), but profit-taking remains a near-term risk given TRWA’s 43% 30-day gain.

2. Multi-Chain Expansion & Yield Vaults (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Phase 1 established thUSD (real-asset-backed stablecoin) and yield vaults focused on sukuk/gold. Planned Phase 2 multi-chain deployment via LayerZero’s OFT standard could broaden user access and TVL growth.

What this means:
Successful expansion may increase thUSD adoption, directly boosting TRWA utility through staking/governance. Each 10% rise in thUSD’s circulating supply (currently unstated) could correlate with TRWA demand, given its role in protocol fees and sTRWA rewards (Roadmap).

3. Altcoin Liquidity Rotation (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
TRWA surged 93% in July 2025 amid an altcoin rally but now faces a cooling Altcoin Season Index (46/100). Derivatives open interest hit $1.02T (+67% MoM), signaling leveraged speculation.

What this means:
TRWA’s 0.06 turnover ratio (volume/market cap) suggests moderate liquidity. A market-wide shift to “greed” (current Fear & Greed: 43/100) could reignite alt inflows, but TRWA’s -12% 24h drop shows vulnerability to sentiment swings (CMC Data).

Conclusion

TRWA’s near-term trajectory hinges on airdrop-related sell pressure vs. protocol adoption, while mid-term prospects tie to RWA narrative strength. Traders should monitor claim dates (unannounced) and thUSD’s collateralization transparency. Will Phase 2’s cross-chain push offset the post-airdrop hangover?