Latest The Graph (GRT) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Technical Downtrend (Bearish Impact)

Overview: GRT trades below all key moving averages (7-day SMA: $0.0883, 30-day SMA: $0.0927), with RSI at 43.21 indicating bearish momentum. The MACD histogram (-0.0001695) confirms weakening buying pressure.

What this means: Technical traders often interpret sustained prices below SMAs as signals to reduce positions. The failed test of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ($0.09978) on September 4 likely triggered stop-loss orders, exacerbating the dip.

What to look out for: A close above the 7-day SMA ($0.0883) could signal short-term relief.

2. Staking Rate Cuts (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Bitvavo’s September 1 update cut GRT’s Flex Staking APY to 2.2% (no lock-up) vs 32.8% for locked LPT and 12.4% for ATOM.

What this means: While GRT remains available for staking, the comparatively low yield reduces its appeal to income-focused investors. However, the fixed staking option was removed entirely, potentially decreasing sell pressure from unlocked tokens.

3. Market Sentiment (Neutral Impact)

Overview: The crypto fear/greed index sits at 41/100 (neutral), with Bitcoin dominance rising to 58.08% – capital remains cautious about altcoins. GRT’s 24h volume fell 26.25% to $28.2M, reflecting fading momentum.

What this means: GRT’s underperformance aligns with the 12.28% weekly drop in the Altcoin Season Index. Traders appear hesitant to re-enter mid-cap alts without clearer bullish catalysts.

Conclusion

GRT’s dip reflects technical headwinds and sector-wide risk aversion, compounded by reduced staking incentives. While the protocol’s Chainlink CCIP integration (May 2025) and TRON data streaming partnership (July 2025) provide long-term utility, short-term traders await stronger signals.

Key watch: Can GRT hold the $0.0853 Fibonacci swing low? A breakdown could target the year-to-date low of $0.08.

Deep Dive

1. Staking Incentives (Neutral Impact)

Overview: Bitvavo’s September 2025 Flex Staking update offers GRT at 2.20% APY with no lock-up, slightly above ETH (0.70%) but below LPT (10.90%).
What this means: While not a major yield driver, the rate could incentivize short-term holding among retail investors. GRT’s circulating supply (10.47B) remains high, limiting staking’s price impact unless adoption spikes.

2. AI/Data Narrative (Bullish Impact)

Overview: GRT was added to Grayscale’s AI-focused fund on July 25, 2025, joining TAO, NEAR, and FIL. The fund targets decentralized AI infrastructure.
What this means: Institutional exposure via regulated products could improve GRT’s long-term demand profile. The Graph’s role in indexing blockchain data for AI agents (Grayscale) positions it as critical Web3 infrastructure.

3. Technical Signals (Bearish Bias)

Overview: GRT trades below its 30-day SMA ($0.0928) with MACD histogram negative (-0.0000965). RSI (46.42) shows neutral momentum.
What this means: The 24h gain lacks strong technical confirmation. A close above $0.0928 (30-day SMA) is needed to signal bullish reversal potential.

Conclusion

GRT’s minor gain reflects competing forces – AI fund inflows and staking tweaks vs. weak technicals and high supply. While infrastructure utility strengthens, short-term momentum hinges on reclaiming $0.092 resistance.

Key watch: Can GRT hold above the 7-day SMA ($0.0893) amid declining trading volume (-2.84% in 24h)?