Latest THORChain (RUNE) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Security Incident Impact (Bearish)

Overview: THORChain co-founder John-Paul Thorbjornsen lost $1.35M in a sophisticated deepfake scam on 12 September 2025, where attackers compromised a Telegram account and used AI-generated video to steal private keys (ZachXBT).

What this means: While the protocol itself wasn’t breached, the incident highlighted operational risks for key stakeholders. Security concerns often trigger short-term sell-offs, especially when high-profile figures are involved. The timing worsened sentiment amid a neutral Fear & Greed Index (55), leaving RUNE vulnerable to panic-driven exits.

What to look out for: Community response to THORSwap’s bounty offer for stolen funds and any protocol upgrades to prevent similar attacks.

2. Technical Weakness (Mixed)

Overview: RUNE broke below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($1.16) and trades below its 7-day SMA ($1.19). The RSI at 42.88 signals neutral-to-oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram shows tentative bullish divergence (+0.0027).

What this means: Technical traders likely sold at the breakdown of $1.16, a level that had acted as support since mid-August. However, the MACD’s upward momentum suggests potential for a relief rally if buyers defend $1.10 (2025 low).

Key threshold: A close above $1.21 (30-day SMA) could invalidate the bearish structure.

3. Altcoin Liquidity Drain (Bearish)

Overview: The Altcoin Season Index fell 11.29% this week, reflecting capital rotation into Bitcoin (+58.25% dominance). RUNE’s 24h volume surged 112% to $39.8M, signaling distribution (selling into liquidity).

What this means: Macro factors amplified RUNE’s decline, as traders reduced exposure to mid-cap alts. The token’s -16.91% 60-day return underperformed ETH (-3.96%) and BTC (-2.07%), worsening its relative weakness.

Conclusion

RUNE’s drop stems from a triad of security jitters, technical breakdowns, and sector-wide risk aversion. While the protocol’s deflationary mechanics (recent 60M RUNE burn) and incoming TRON integration offer long-term upside, traders are prioritizing safety in the near term.

Key watch: Can RUNE hold the $1.10–$1.16 support zone ahead of the 18 September Binance network upgrade completion?

Deep Dive

1. Network Upgrade & Exchange Resumption (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Binance resumed RUNE transactions on 18 September after a scheduled network upgrade aimed at improving stability and user experience. Upgrades often signal proactive development, attracting liquidity and reducing operational risks.

What this means:
The resumption eliminated transactional friction for major exchange users, likely increasing demand. Historically, post-upgrade price rebounds reflect restored trader confidence, especially after planned halts.

What to look out for:
Post-upgrade metrics like swap volume and node participation rates to confirm sustained network health.

2. Deflationary Tokenomics (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
THORChain shifted to a deflationary model in 2025, burning RUNE via protocol fees instead of issuing block rewards. Recent data shows ~12% annualized supply reduction, tightening sell pressure.

What this means:
Scarcity dynamics are strengthening as burned RUNE (from swaps/lending) outpaces new emissions. With circulating supply at 351M (of 500M max), sustained usage could amplify price upside. Community posts highlight ongoing burns as a core bullish narrative.

3. Technical Breakout (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
RUNE reclaimed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($1.21), with bullish MACD crossover and RSI14 at 49 (neutral). However, 24h volume fell 52% to $19.1M, signaling cautious participation.

What this means:
The breakout above $1.21 could attract momentum traders, but weak volume raises sustainability concerns. A close above the 50% Fib level ($1.24) would confirm strength, while a drop below $1.16 (78.6% Fib) risks retesting 2025 lows.

Conclusion

RUNE’s 24h rise reflects a mix of post-upgrade optimism, deflationary tailwinds, and technical momentum. However, low volume and lingering macro headwinds (-75% YoY) warrant caution. Key watch: Can RUNE hold $1.21 and attract fresh liquidity as upgrades take effect?