Latest THORChain (RUNE) Price Analysis

TLDR
THORChain (RUNE) rose 4.58% over the last 24h, outperforming the broader crypto market (+4.34%). The move reverses a 7-day downtrend (-1.77%) and aligns with three key developments:

1. Deflationary Shift – Protocol fee burns now exceed RUNE issuance, tightening supply.
2. Technical Rebound – Price bounced from critical Fibonacci support ($1.32) amid oversold RSI.
3. Ecosystem Growth – New futures listings and node operator initiatives boosted sentiment.

Deep Dive

1. Deflationary Mechanics (Bullish Impact)

Overview: THORChain ended block rewards in February 2025, transitioning to a fee-driven model where 80% of swap fees (0.10% per trade) are used to burn RUNE. As of August 7, 2025, the protocol burns more RUNE than it creates.

What this means: Reduced supply (total supply: 425M, circulating: 351M) creates upward pressure if demand remains steady. With $79.9M in 24h volume, fee burns could remove ~$80K worth of RUNE daily, accelerating if swap activity rises.

What to look out for: Sustained swap volume above $100M/day to validate the deflationary model’s impact.

2. Technical Rebound (Mixed Impact)

Overview: RUNE reclaimed its 200-day EMA ($1.32) after testing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($1.32). The RSI14 rose from 35.6 to 40.5, exiting oversold territory.

What this means: Short-term traders likely bought the dip, but resistance looms at the 50% Fib level ($1.45). The MACD histogram remains negative (-0.0087), signaling lingering bearish momentum.

Key threshold: A close above $1.45 could target $1.56 (23.6% Fib), while a drop below $1.32 risks retesting the 2025 low of $1.23.

3. Futures Listings & Node Growth (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Orderly Network added RUNE futures with 10x leverage on July 20, 2025, coinciding with a 49.7% price surge. Separately, a August 6 community update highlighted node operator efforts to decentralize the network.

What this means: Derivatives access attracts speculative capital, while node growth (now ~500 globally) strengthens network security and long-term investor confidence.

Conclusion

RUNE’s rebound reflects a mix of deflationary tailwinds, technical buying, and infrastructure upgrades. While the 24h move aligns with broader market gains, THORChain’s unique tokenomics and cross-chain utility position it for volatility-sensitive opportunities.

Key watch: Can RUNE hold above $1.32 and convert it into support? Failure here could reignite bearish momentum, while a hold may signal accumulation before the next upgrade cycle.

TLDR
THORChain (RUNE) fell 0.1% over 24h, extending a 7.3% weekly decline. Here’s why:

1. Technical Weakness – Price stuck below key moving averages ($1.34–$1.39) with bearish momentum.
2. Network Upgrade Uncertainty – Recent Binance suspensions for upgrades (July 31) may have lingering liquidity effects.
3. Altcoin Rotation – Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.7%, diverting capital from mid-cap alts like RUNE.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: RUNE trades at $1.29, below its 7-day SMA ($1.34) and 30-day SMA ($1.39). The MACD histogram (-0.0065) and RSI (43.31) signal bearish momentum, though not yet oversold. Fibonacci retracement shows next support at $1.23 (swing low).

What this means: Persistent failure to reclaim $1.34–$1.39 resistance suggests weak buying interest. Low 24h volume ($64.9M, -35% from prior day) exacerbates volatility risk.

Key watch: A close below $1.23 could trigger cascading liquidations, while reclaiming $1.34 might stabilize sentiment.

2. Post-Upgrade Liquidity Drain (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Binance suspended RUNE deposits/withdrawals on July 31 for a major network upgrade, restricting arbitrage flows. While services resumed, the upgrade introduced a deflationary model burning protocol fees (THORChain).

What this means: Reduced exchange liquidity during the suspension may have amplified sell pressure. Long-term, fee burns could tighten supply, but node operators facing lower yields (post-block reward removal) might offload RUNE to offset revenue dips.

3. Altcoin Sentiment Shifts (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Bitcoin dominance hit 58.7% (up 0.7% in 24h), while the Altcoin Season Index fell 23.6% monthly. TradFi inflows to BTC/ETH ETFs totaled $147.6B, overshadowing mid-cap DeFi tokens.

What this means: RUNE’s cross-chain utility narrative struggles against macro rotations into "safer" large caps. Derivatives data shows mixed signals – open interest rose 1.7%, but spot volumes lagged.

Conclusion

RUNE’s dip reflects technical exhaustion, post-upgrade liquidity shifts, and a risk-off tilt toward Bitcoin. While deflationary mechanics could support prices long-term, short-term headwinds persist.

Key watch: Can THORChain’s Q3 swap volume (last reported at $10.4B) rebound post-upgrade to validate its fee-burn model? Monitor $1.23 support and BTC dominance trends.