THORChain (RUNE) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Chain Expansion & Liquidity Demand (Bullish Impact)

Overview: THORChain added XRP and TRON in Q3 2025, with Solana integration planned for August. Each new chain requires 1:1 RUNE pairing in liquidity pools - $10M in TRX liquidity would need $10M RUNE locked. The protocol processed $10.4B swap volume last quarter, driving fee-based demand.

What this means: Every dollar of non-RUNE assets deposited creates $3 RUNE demand (1:1 in pools + 2:1 node bonds). Successful TRON/Solana adoption could reverse RUNE's -30% 90d decline by expanding the protocol's liquidity base.

2. Deflationary Tokenomics (Mixed Impact)

Overview: THORChain eliminated block rewards in Feb 2025, burning swap fees instead. Only 42.5M RUNE remains in the Reserve (vs 500M max supply). Network fees now account for 100% of node/LP yields vs 25% pre-2025.

What this means: Reduced sell pressure from emissions (-28,500 RUNE/day pre-2025) could support prices, but nodes face declining yields (12% APR → 8% since May). Some operators may unbond RUNE, creating overhead resistance near $1.20 (200-day EMA).

3. Security & Sentiment Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: A $1.35M deepfake scam targeting co-founder JP Thor on Sep 12 rattled confidence, though protocol funds weren't compromised. This follows a 78% price drop since Sep 2024's $4.60 high.

What this means: While the attack didn't breach THORChain's infrastructure, it highlights operational risks for node operators. The 24h trading volume spike to $74.8M (+102%) shows heightened volatility sensitivity.

Conclusion

RUNE's fate hinges on whether new chain integrations (TRON/Solana) outpace lingering security concerns and node operator attrition. Watch the Total Value Locked in TRX and SOL pools post-integration – sustained growth above $50M could validate the protocol's 3:1 valuation model. Will THORChain's deflation pivot offset crypto's macro headwinds?