Latest Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Profit-Taking After Treasury Developments (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Verb Technology’s $558M private funding round to create a TON treasury (announced 6 Aug 2025) initially boosted sentiment, but prices dipped as traders locked gains. TON remains down 5.3% over 30 days despite the bullish narrative.

What this means:
While treasury strategies theoretically reduce circulating supply, markets reacted cautiously to Verb’s execution risks and dilution fears. The 24h trading volume dropped 23.9% to $133.7M, signaling weakened conviction.

What to watch:
Verification of Verb’s TON holdings (claimed 149M TON worth $471M) and staking activity.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
TON broke below its 50-day SMA ($3.22) and tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.10. The RSI-7 at 38.22 shows no oversold conditions, leaving room for further downside.

What this means:
Traders exited positions after the price failed to hold above the critical $3.27 (38.2% Fib) level. The MACD histogram turning positive (+0.0044) suggests potential stabilization, but momentum remains weak.

Key level to watch:
A sustained break below $3.10 could target the 200-day SMA at $3.18.

3. Whale Supply Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
68% of TON’s supply is concentrated in whale wallets, per CoinMarketCap community data (27 Jun 2025). Only 20% of holders have maintained positions for over a year.

What this means:
High whale dominance increases susceptibility to large sell orders. Recent on-chain data shows reduced network activity (-29% active addresses since July 2025), compounding liquidity risks.

Conclusion

TON’s dip reflects profit-taking after ambiguous institutional developments, technical rejection at key levels, and structural supply risks. While Telegram’s ecosystem growth (e.g., TON Station’s 18 Sep 2025 Daily Combo) provides long-term utility, short-term sentiment remains fragile.

Key watch: Can TON hold the $3.10 support amid declining volume, or will whale selling pressure escalate? Monitor Verb’s treasury disclosures and Telegram’s next ecosystem updates.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Momentum (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Coinbase Ventures joined Sequoia Capital and Paradigm as confirmed Toncoin holders on September 10, while Verb Technology raised $558M to build a Toncoin treasury (@CobakOfficial).

What this means: Institutional buying reduces circulating supply (only 49% of max 5.14B TON in circulation) and signals long-term confidence. The TON Foundation’s plan to raise $400M for a treasury company mirrors MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, aiming to lock ~5% of total supply.

What to look out for: Progress on the TON Strategy Co. launch (@tonstrat), which could drive further supply shocks.

2. Ecosystem Growth (Mixed Impact)

Overview: AWS added TON to its Public Blockchain Data suite on September 10, while TON-based memecoin trading surged 113% MoM to $84.5M.

What this means: Infrastructure upgrades like Jetton 2.0 (3x faster transfers) and AWS integration improve developer appeal. However, memecoin dominance (21% of TON’s volume) introduces volatility risks if speculative trading cools.

3. Technical Signals (Neutral/Bullish)

Overview: TON trades at $3.20 – above its 7-day SMA ($3.18) and 30-day SMA ($3.17). The MACD histogram turned positive (+0.0082) on September 18, signaling potential bullish momentum.

What this means: Price holds above critical Fibonacci retracement support ($3.17 = 61.8% level). A sustained break above $3.22 (50% retracement) could target $3.34 (23.6% level).

Conclusion

Toncoin’s 24h gain reflects institutional accumulation and infrastructure bets outweighing market-wide caution. While exchange listings and treasury plans suggest structural demand, memecoin exposure and a neutral RSI (47.96) warrant caution.

Key watch: Can TON hold above $3.17 support amid altcoin season index dropping 5% yesterday? Monitor the MACD crossover and TON Strategy Co. updates.