Toncoin (TON) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Accumulation (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Verb Technology (NASDAQ: VERB) raised $558M via private placement to build a Toncoin treasury targeting >5% of circulating supply. This mirrors MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, reducing sell pressure and signaling institutional confidence. Coinbase Ventures and VCs like Sequoia also acquired TON, per recent filings.
What this means: Strategic buying creates structural demand, potentially offsetting retail selling. If executed fully, this could absorb ~128M TON (5% of 2.56B circulating), tightening supply during a -12% 30d price slump.

2. Telegram’s Ecosystem Growth (Mixed Impact)

Overview: TON’s integration with Telegram’s 800M+ users enables in-app payments, staking, and NFT markets. Robinhood’s August 2025 listing expanded U.S. retail access. However, daily active addresses stagnated post-Q2 2025’s tap-to-earn app hype.
What this means: Real adoption could drive sustained utility (e.g., USDT on TON, per TON docs), but reliance on Telegram’s execution risks delays. A breakout requires accelerating user conversion beyond current ~155M accounts.

3. Whale-Driven Liquidity Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: 68% of TON supply is held by whales (10K–1M TON wallets), per CoinMarketCap. Recent exchange withdrawals (reserves fell to 2.96M TON) suggest accumulation, but concentrated holdings amplify sell risks.
What this means: Whale moves could trigger volatility – a 5% sell-off by top holders would flood markets with ~128M TON ($404M at $3.16). Technicals show critical support at $3.10 (78.6% Fibonacci), with breakdown risk to $2.60.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s path balances institutional tailwinds against whale-driven fragility. While Verb’s treasury and Telegram’s scale offer upside, the $3.10–$3.24 support zone is pivotal short-term. Will TON’s supply concentration shift from a risk to a stability anchor as institutions deepen exposure? Monitor wallet distribution and Telegram’s Q4 product updates.