Latest TRON (TRX) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Stablecoin Liquidity Surge (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Exchange-based stablecoin reserves (primarily USDT) reached a record $70B on September 2, 2025 (CryptoQuant). TRON hosts $53B+ USDT – over 60% of global supply – making it a direct beneficiary of this liquidity influx.

What this means:
- High stablecoin reserves signal dry powder for crypto purchases, with TRON positioned to capture flows via its dominant USDT infrastructure.
- TRON’s gas-free USDT transfers attract users seeking low-cost settlements, increasing network utility and demand for TRX as gas/staking token.

What to look out for: USDT exchange netflow trends – sustained inflows could extend TRX’s rally.

2. Nasdaq Momentum & Treasury Strategy (Mixed Impact)

Overview: TRON Inc. (Nasdaq: TRON) completed a reverse merger in July 2025, adopting a “MicroStrategy-like” treasury strategy to accumulate TRX. The firm holds 365M+ TRX ($127M) and staked 360M tokens for 10% APY via JustLend.

What this means:
- Public market exposure via Nasdaq attracts institutional interest, but TRX’s 0.82% market cap dominance remains modest vs. Bitcoin’s 57.3%.
- Concerns linger about circular economics: TRON Inc.’s TRX-heavy treasury could amplify volatility if sentiment shifts.

3. Technical Breakout (Bullish Impact)

Overview: TRX broke above its 30-day SMA ($0.3451) with RSI(14) at 55.36 (neutral). The MACD histogram turned positive on September 11, signaling momentum shift.

What this means:
- A close above $0.35 (July 2025 resistance) could target $0.369 Fibonacci extension.
- Volume rose 29.71% to $949M – above the 90-day average – confirming buyer conviction.

Key level to watch: $0.343 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) – sustained hold here would reinforce bullish structure.

Conclusion

TRON’s rally reflects stablecoin-driven utility growth and technical momentum, amplified by its Nasdaq-linked visibility. While the 24h move is modest, TRX’s role as a liquidity backbone for $70B+ stablecoin reserves provides fundamental support.

Key watch: Can TRX sustain above its 30-day SMA ($0.345) to confirm a mid-term bullish reversal? Monitor USDT on-chain activity and TRON Inc.’s treasury updates for directional cues.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: TRX broke below its 7-day SMA ($0.33394) and 30-day SMA ($0.34597), signaling short-term bearish control. The RSI-14 at 32.39 shows oversold conditions but lacks bullish reversal signals.

What this means:
- Bears dominate as price trades below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ($0.35368).
- MACD histogram (-0.00388) confirms accelerating downward momentum.

Key watch: A close above $0.335 (50% Fibonacci level) could stabilize the sell-off.

2. Network Activity Decline (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Daily transactions on Tron fell from 9M to 3.5M in June 2025 (CryptoQuant), with no recovery despite price stability.

What this means:
- Reduced on-chain utility undermines TRX’s “high-throughput blockchain” narrative.
- Speculative trading (not organic usage) may be propping up the price, increasing volatility risk.

3. Regulatory Headwinds (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Tether’s August 30 decision to phase out USDT on Tron triggered a 10% TRX drop (Bitget News).

What this means:
- Tron hosts ~80B USDT (51% of global supply). Losing Tether could dent its stablecoin dominance.
- However, Justin Sun’s $200M USD1 stablecoin expansion on Tron (Bitget) aims to offset this risk.

Conclusion

TRX’s decline reflects technical weakness, fading network activity, and lingering regulatory doubts – though its long-term stablecoin strategy could stabilize prices. Key watch: Can TRX hold the $0.30–$0.31 support zone (tested 5x since July) to prevent a deeper correction? Monitor Tron’s daily transactions for signs of ecosystem revival.