Usual (USUAL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Revenue Mechanics (Bullish Impact)

Overview: USUAL redistributes 70% of protocol revenue to buybacks and 30% to stakers. With $646M in USD0 TVL (as of May 2025), scaling adoption could amplify these rewards. Staking locks 55% of the supply, reducing sell pressure.

What this means: Higher USD0 usage directly increases buyback volume, historically correlating with price rallies (e.g., 37% surge in July 2025). The current 70% staking rate suggests long-term holder alignment.

2. Security & Trust Dynamics (Mixed Impact)

Overview: A May 2025 flash loan attack was thwarted by BlockSec’s Phalcon system, but the protocol paused operations temporarily. USUAL’s cross-chain expansion (BNB, Base, Arbitrum) increases attack surfaces.

What this means: While swift incident response bolstered credibility, repeated security events could erode trust. DeFi’s $2.47B in 2025 hacks (CoinEdition) underscores this risk.

3. Stablecoin Market Saturation (Bearish Impact)

Overview: USD0 competes with USDC ($61B market cap) and M0’s institutional-focused stablecoins. Fluid integration (dual-yield LPs) and multichain growth are differentiators, but adoption lags behind top 10 stablecoins.

What this means: Narrowing the $61B–$646M TVL gap requires accelerated partnerships. The 2025 stablecoin sector grew 22% YoY, but USUAL’s revenue-sharing model must outpace incumbents’ liquidity advantages.

Conclusion

USUAL’s price hinges on USD0 adoption fueling buybacks, balanced against DeFi’s systemic risks and stablecoin competition. While the RSI (42.26) signals undervaluation, reclaiming the $0.066 Fibonacci level could signal momentum. Can USUAL’s community-driven model carve a niche in a $158B stablecoin market dominated by centralized players?