Latest Velo (VELO) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Sell Pressure (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
On September 20, 2025, VELO unlocked 3 billion tokens (13.63% of supply), worth ~$43.39M at current prices (source). Historically, large unlocks correlate with short-term price declines as recipients often sell into liquidity.

What this means:
- Increased circulating supply risks diluting demand, especially with VELO’s 24h turnover ratio at 6.68% (moderate liquidity).
- Pre-unlock technical indicators (Money Flow Index <50) signaled rising selling pressure, per analysis).

What to look out for:
- Whether exchange inflows spike post-unlock (trackable via on-chain analytics platforms).

2. Technical Resistance Rejection (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
VELO faced rejection at $0.0155, a key resistance zone where the 200-day EMA and upper Bollinger Band converged. The MACD histogram turned negative (-0.0000668), signaling bearish momentum.

What this means:
- Repeated failures to break $0.0155 (tested 3x in September) reinforced seller dominance.
- RSI at 45.23 (14-day) suggests neutral sentiment but leans toward oversold territory, hinting at potential consolidation.

Key level to watch:
- Immediate support at $0.013 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement). A breakdown could target $0.0124 (Sept 25 low).

Conclusion

VELO’s dip reflects a combination of token unlock dilution and technical resistance struggles. While the project’s long-term focus on Asia’s RWA ecosystem (Orbit Plus Super App) remains intact, short-term headwinds dominate.

Key watch: Can VELO hold $0.013 support, or will the unlock-driven supply glut push it toward yearly lows? Monitor exchange reserve data and Bitcoin’s stability for directional cues.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Rebound (Bullish Impact)

Overview: VELO rebounded from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.01332), a critical support zone. The RSI-7 (40.08) exited oversold territory, signaling short-term buying interest.
What this means: Traders likely viewed the dip as a buying opportunity, especially with the price holding above the 7-day SMA ($0.013194). However, resistance looms at the 30-day SMA ($0.014094), which could cap gains without fresh catalysts.

2. RWA Adoption in Asia (Bullish Impact)

Overview: VELO’s Orbit Plus Super App launch (Sept 18, 2025) aims to tokenize real-world assets like green infrastructure and real estate across Southeast Asia. This aligns with BlackRock-backed Securitize and Paxos partnerships for compliant settlements.
What this means: The pivot to RWAs could drive long-term demand for VELO as collateral and governance token. Immediate price action reflects optimism about capturing Asia’s $396B remittance market (Velo Protocol).

3. Token Unlock Delays (Mixed Impact)

Overview: A 13.63% supply unlock on Sept 20 initially raised sell-off concerns, but the team confirmed delays for future unlocks until after 2025 (Velo Update).
What this means: While the recent unlock added selling pressure (price dipped 5.5% post-event), the commitment to stability eased fears of near-term dilution.

Conclusion

VELO’s rally combines technical buying, strategic RWA expansion, and controlled supply dynamics. While bullish in the short term, sustainability hinges on delivering tangible adoption metrics in Q4.

Key watch: Can VELO hold above $0.014 (30-day SMA) to confirm a trend reversal, or will profit-taking erase gains? Monitor trading volume spikes and RWA partnership updates.