Velodrome Finance (VELO) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Liquidation Risk (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
A $49.08M VELO unlock on 21 September 2025 will release 155.8M tokens (17% of circulating supply). Historical unlocks like August 2025’s $91.2M FTN release saw 12% price declines post-event.

What this means:
The concentrated release could overwhelm buying demand, especially with VELO already down 48% YTD. Watch exchange inflow spikes post-unlock as a bearish signal.

2. Superchain Expansion Momentum (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Velodrome processed $12B total volume in 2025 (2x 2024) via cross-chain swaps across 8 Optimism networks. Integrations with Revolut (60M users) and 1-click swaps improved accessibility.

What this means:
Every $1B in quarterly volume generates ~$2.5M protocol fees (0.25% swap fee), 50% of which goes to veVELO lockers. Sustained adoption could offset inflation from 15M weekly VELO emissions.

3. veVELO Lockup vs. Whale Exodus (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
55% of VELO supply is locked until 2029, but whale holdings dropped 65% in Q3 2025. Competitors like Etherex’s liquid lock model are attracting former veVELO holders (EthereumThaila1).

What this means:
Long-term supply reduction (4.2M VELO net locked since July) supports prices, but governance centralization and alternative yield platforms could slow new capital inflows.

Conclusion

VELO’s trajectory hinges on whether Superchain volume growth outpaces September’s unlock sell pressure. Technicals show resistance at $0.0538 (23.6% Fib) – a break above could signal momentum reversal. How quickly will protocols re-lock unlocked VELO to maintain the veNFT flywheel?