Latest Venom (VENOM) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Vietnam Blockchain Partnership (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
On June 16, 2025, Venom announced a partnership with Vietnam to develop a sovereign blockchain-backed financial infrastructure, including digital payments and cross-border solutions. The collaboration targets Vietnam’s 17M crypto users and aligns with its 2025 Digital Infrastructure Strategy.

What this means:
Institutional adoption often drives demand for native tokens. The partnership validates Venom’s Layer-0 protocol for real-world use, potentially increasing utility and long-term holder confidence. However, the 12-month rollout phase means immediate impacts may be limited.

What to look out for:
Progress updates on Vietnam’s pilot programs and regulatory clarity from its proposed Crypto Pilot Resolution (expected 2025).

2. Technical Rebound Signals (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
VENOM’s RSI-14 rose to 33.73 (from 31.44 a week ago), exiting “oversold” territory. Price rebounded from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.1605) toward the 38.2% level ($0.1707).

What this means:
Traders may interpret the RSI recovery and Fibonacci bounce as a short-term buying signal. However, the MACD histogram remains negative (-0.00227), and the 7-day SMA ($0.1405) acts as resistance.

Key threshold:
A close above $0.135 (78.6% Fib level) could signal sustained momentum; failure risks retesting $0.1173 (2024 low).

3. Token Unlock Dynamics (Neutral Impact)

Overview:
A $8.59M VENOM unlock (0.79% of supply) occurred on September 25. Historically, Venom unlocks have caused volatility, like the 34% volume drop before June’s $25M BLAST unlock.

What this means:
This unlock’s smaller size (vs. June’s 35% BLAST unlock) limited sell pressure. However, the lack of staking mechanisms or announced use cases for unlocked tokens keeps dilution risks alive.

Conclusion

VENOM’s rally reflects a mix of Vietnam partnership optimism and technical buying, though broader bearish trends (11% weekly market cap drop) and dilution risks persist.

Key watch: Can VENOM hold above $0.135 post-unlock, or will profit-taking reverse gains ahead of October’s mainnet upgrade? Monitor trading volume trends and Vietnam partnership milestones.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Pressure (Bearish Impact)

Overview: A scheduled unlock of 0.79% of VENOM’s supply (~$8.59M) on 25 September 2025 has heightened selling concerns. Historically, unlocks of ≥0.5% supply have correlated with 10–15% price declines in low-liquidity altcoins like VENOM.

What this means: Even minor unlocks can disproportionately impact thinly traded assets. With VENOM’s 24h volume at $5.36M, the $8.59M unlock represents 160% of daily liquidity, creating potential oversupply risks.

What to watch: Whether unlocked tokens are moved to exchanges post-25 September.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: VENOM broke below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.135) and its 200-day EMA ($0.143), accelerating sell-offs. The RSI-7 hit 12.6 (severely oversold), but weak volume recovery suggests limited buying interest.

What this means: Technical traders likely exited positions after the breakdown, exacerbating downward momentum. The pivot point at $0.1274 now acts as resistance – a sustained close below this level could signal further downside to $0.117 (2025 low).

3. Liquidity Erosion from Delistings (Bearish Impact)

Overview: VENOM lost spot trading pairs on OKX (June 2025) and KuCoin (July 2025), reducing accessible liquidity by ~40% based on historical volumes from these platforms.

What this means: Lower liquidity amplifies price volatility and deters institutional participants. The remaining exchanges (e.g., Bybit, Gate) have seen a 34% decline in VENOM volumes since June 2025, per Tokenomist data.

Conclusion

VENOM’s drop reflects a convergence of tokenomics risks, technical triggers, and structural liquidity challenges. While oversold conditions could invite short-term rebounds, the lack of bullish catalysts and persistent supply overhangs suggest caution.

Key watch: Whether the 25 September unlock triggers measurable exchange inflows. A failure to reclaim $0.1274 resistance would reinforce bearish control.