Latest Walrus (WAL) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Profit-Taking Post-Institutional Catalyst (Bearish Impact)

Overview
WAL rallied 7% on August 12 after Grayscale launched the Grayscale Walrus Trust, targeting accredited investors (Grayscale). However, prices reversed as traders locked in gains, exacerbated by low liquidity (24h turnover of 4.65% vs. market average ~3.5%).

What this means
Institutional products often trigger short-term volatility. While the trust validates WAL’s long-term potential, immediate sell pressure outweighed new demand. The token’s 90-day correlation with Sui (SUI) remains high (+0.82), and SUI’s 7% monthly decline added downward pressure.

Key watch: Grayscale’s trust inflows data (when available) to gauge sustained institutional appetite.

2. Technical Breakdown at Key Levels (Bearish)

Overview
WAL broke below its 7-day SMA ($0.44) and faces resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ($0.4345). The RSI (54.47) shows weakening momentum, while the MACD histogram flipped negative (-0.00136).

What this means
Traders are likely sidelined until WAL reclaims $0.43. The next support lies at the 38.2% Fib level ($0.4218), aligning with the 30-day SMA ($0.4204). A close below $0.41 could trigger accelerated selling.

Key watch: Volume trends – a recovery above $30M daily (vs. current $28M) might signal accumulation.

3. Broader Altcoin Weakness (Mixed Impact)

Overview
While Bitcoin dominance held steady at 57.46%, the Altcoin Season Index dipped 14.5% monthly. WAL’s AI/data storage niche also faces competition (e.g., Irys criticizing its “hybrid model” on X).

What this means
WAL’s bearish move isn’t isolated – storage peers like FIL (-2.1%) and AR (-1.8%) also lagged. However, WAL’s Sui integration and 49.7% staking APR (source) could buffer downside if ecosystem activity rebounds.

Conclusion

WAL’s drop reflects post-catalyst profit-taking, technical headwinds, and sector-wide caution. The Grayscale trust remains a bullish anchor, but short-term sentiment hinges on Sui’s DeFi traction and WAL’s ability to hold $0.41. Key watch: Sui’s TVL trends and Walrus’ Q3 partnerships (e.g., Pipe Network integration progress).

Deep Dive

1. Grayscale Trust Launch (Bullish Impact)

Overview: On August 12, Grayscale launched the Grayscale Walrus Trust, enabling accredited investors to gain exposure to WAL without direct token ownership. This followed Mysten Labs’ $140M funding round for Walrus in March 2025 (Grayscale).

What this means: Institutional interest validates Walrus’ role as Sui’s core data layer, reducing retail sell pressure. The trust’s structure locks WAL tokens for custodial holdings, tightening circulating supply.

What to look out for: Secondary market trading approval for the trust, which could amplify liquidity.

2. Sui Ecosystem Momentum (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Sui’s Total Value Locked (TVL) hit $2.3B in July 2025, with Walrus underpinning storage for AI, gaming, and DeFi apps like Swarm Network and FLock.io (Swarm Integration).

What this means: Walrus’ use cases (4PB stored since mainnet) drive organic demand, but Sui’s recent 27% pullback limits upside.

3. Technical Breakout (Bullish Impact)

Overview: WAL’s MACD histogram turned positive (+0.00115) on September 16, while RSI (14-day: 47.45) exited oversold territory. The price also reclaimed the 30-day SMA ($0.4202).

What this means: Traders interpreted this as a momentum shift, with $0.434 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) acting as near-term resistance.

Conclusion

Walrus’ 24h gain reflects institutional tailwinds and technical recovery, though reliance on Sui’s volatile ecosystem poses risks. Key watch: Can WAL hold above $0.42 if Sui retests $3.90 resistance? Monitor Grayscale’s trust inflows and Sui’s DeFi TVL trends.