Worldcoin (WLD) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Tokenomics & Adoption (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Worldcoin’s circulating supply (~2B WLD) represents just 20% of its 10B total. Team/investor tokens (25% of supply) unlock gradually until July 2028, creating sustained sell-side pressure. However, the protocol adds ~34M WLD/month via user grants as Orb verification grows (261K new users/week as of August 2025). Recent $135M funding from a16z aims to accelerate Orb production.

What this means:
Near-term price could struggle with inflation (9.69% 7d supply growth), but long-term utility hinges on converting verified users into active WLD holders. Failure to retain users post-free grants risks sell-offs.

2. Regulatory Crackdowns (Bearish Risk)

Overview:
China’s Ministry of State Security warned on August 14 about iris data risks, following bans in Kenya and probes in Germany/France. Worldcoin paused operations in Brazil/India after local rulings deemed biometric-for-token swaps illegal.

What this means:
40% of Worldcoin’s target markets now face operational restrictions. Each new ban could trigger 5-10% price drops (see 8.6% dip after China’s warning). Success in U.S./UK expansions (16 WLD/user incentives) is critical to offset losses.

3. Technical & Sentiment Signals (Neutral)

Overview:
WLD holds above 200-day EMA ($0.99) but faces resistance at $1.28 (23.6% Fib level). RSI (60.77) and MACD hint at bullish momentum, yet exchange inflows spiked 11.59% this week – a potential distribution signal. Whale wallets withdrew 18.2M WLD from Binance in August, suggesting accumulation.

What this means:
A break above $1.28 could trigger a 30% rally toward $1.70 (July high), but failure risks retracement to $0.85 support. Monitor Coinglass OI ($289M) – rising longs could amplify volatility.

Conclusion

Worldcoin’s price trajectory depends on balancing user growth against token inflation and regulatory landmines. While the a16z-backed Orb expansion provides fundamental support, the 80% unlocked supply through 2028 creates structural headwinds. Can WLD’s biometric adoption outpace regulatory friction and sell-side pressure? Watch weekly user grants (via Dune) and SEC/ECB statements on biometric tokens for directional cues.