Latest XRP (XRP) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Macro Shockwaves (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
XRP plunged 41% to $1.64 on Oct 11 after former President Trump announced 100% tariffs on China, triggering a $19B crypto liquidation cascade (Coindesk). While it rebounded to $2.47, residual risk aversion persists.

What this means:
- Leverage unwinding: Over $150M in XRP futures were liquidated, forcing margin calls and suppressing price recovery.
- Altcoin fragility: XRP’s 817M intraday volume (3x 30-day avg) revealed thin liquidity during stress tests.

2. Altcoin Liquidity Drain (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Bitcoin dominance surged to 59.91% (yearly high), while the Altcoin Season Index fell 47% weekly as capital rotated to perceived safety.

What this means:
- Institutional pivot: Spot XRP ETF inflows failed to offset broader altcoin outflows, with derivatives open interest dropping 6.3% overnight.
- Sentiment anchor: XRP’s -27% 60-day return underperformed BTC (-7.6%) and ETH (-12.4%), eroding trader confidence.

3. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Bias)

Overview:
XRP broke below its 30-day SMA ($2.91) and Fibonacci 50% retracement level ($2.36), with RSI(7) at 18.24 signaling extreme oversold conditions.

What this means:
- Capitulation signal: The MACD histogram (-0.056) suggests bearish momentum despite oversold readings.
- Key levels: Resistance at $2.79 (23.6% Fib), support at $2.16 (61.8% Fib). A close below $2.16 risks retesting Oct 11’s $1.64 low.

Conclusion

XRP’s dip reflects post-crash fragility, altcoin outflows, and breached technical supports. While institutional accumulation at $2.34–$2.45 provides a near-term floor, recovery hinges on calming macro tensions and Bitcoin stabilizing.

Key watch: Can XRP hold $2.16 support ahead of Ripple’s Swell 2025 conference (Nov 4-5), where banking partnership updates could reignite sentiment?

Deep Dive

1. ETF Speculation Resurgence (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
The SEC is expected to decide on multiple XRP ETF applications by October/November 2025 (NewsBTC). Analysts highlight parallels to Bitcoin’s 2024 ETF approval cycle, where anticipation drove pre-decision rallies.

What this means:
While no official timeline exists, traders are front-running potential institutional inflows. XRP’s 438% annual gain reflects optimism about regulated products unlocking new demand. However, rejection risks loom – the SEC previously sued Ripple over XRP’s legal status.

What to look out for:
SEC commentary at Ripple’s Swell conference (Nov 4-5) and updated ETF filing dates.

2. Technical Rebound at Key Level (Neutral Impact)

Overview:
XRP found support at $2.78, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The RSI (41.97) shows neutral momentum, while MACD’s -0.0068 histogram suggests bears are losing steam.

What this means:
Traders interpreted the hold above $2.78 as a bullish divergence – price stabilized despite -7.35% weekly losses. However, overhead resistance at $2.94 (50% Fib) and the death cross (30-day SMA below 200-day SMA) limit upside.

Key metric:
A close above $2.90 could trigger short-covering; below $2.72 risks cascading liquidations.

3. Bahrain Fintech Partnership (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Ripple partnered with Bahrain Fintech Bay (NewsBTC) to develop blockchain infrastructure, including RLUSD stablecoin integration. This follows Ripple’s July application for a U.S. bank charter.

What this means:
Expanding Middle East/CBDC corridors strengthens XRP’s real-world utility narrative. However, the partnership’s immediate financial impact is unclear – XRP’s 24h volume ($4.95B) remains below its 90-day average.

Conclusion

XRP’s modest gain reflects cautious optimism around ETFs and strategic deals, tempered by technical headwinds and whale distribution (440M XRP moved to exchanges last month). Key watch: Can bulls hold $2.78 through the weekend, or will SEC delays trigger profit-taking?