Deep Dive
1. Mainnet Upgrade & zkVM Integration (Bullish Impact)
Overview:
Zircuit’s mainnet will adopt zkVM provers on August 25, following a successful testnet fork. This upgrade aims to lower withdrawal costs and improve scalability using Sindri Labs’ zkVM-as-an-API.
What this means:
Cheaper transactions could attract more developers and users to Zircuit’s Layer 2 ecosystem, increasing ZRC’s utility. Historically, Ethereum L2 upgrades like Optimism’s Bedrock have driven short-term price rallies (e.g., OP +22% in 1 week post-upgrade).
2. Token Unlocks & Vesting Schedule (Bearish Risk)
Overview:
78.05% of ZRC’s 10B total supply remains locked, including:
- Team/Investors/Foundation: 48.44% (vesting until 2026).
- Future Airdrops: 8.55% (6–12 month cliffs).
Post-TGE, only 21.95% (2.19B ZRC) is circulating. Major unlocks begin in late 2025.
What this means:
Concentrated sell pressure could emerge if unlocks coincide with weak demand. For context, similar vesting cliffs triggered 30–50% price drops for tokens like APT and SUI in 2023. Monitor vesting timelines.
3. AI Trading Engine Adoption (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
Zircuit’s “Hyperliquid for AI Trading” entered closed beta in July 2025, offering cross-chain strategies. A public launch and $10M ZRC grants for AI models are planned for Q4.
What this means:
Successful adoption could tie ZRC to fee revenue and staking rewards, mimicking GMX’s GMX token dynamics (+300% in 2023). However, delayed product traction or security flaws in the AI engine may dampen sentiment.
Conclusion
ZRC’s price hinges on balancing upgrades against dilution risks. The August mainnet upgrade and AI product rollout offer catalysts, but unlocks from Q4 2025 onward require sustained demand to avoid oversupply. Key metric to watch: Zircuit’s TVL post-upgrade – can it rebound from its current $950M amid broader DeFi stagnation?