Bitcoin

Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) could be seeing the final innings of a macro bull run, a historically accurate on-chain metric says.
The value days destroyed (VDD) multiple, which <a href="https://twitter.com/TXMCtrades/status/1777807634747289902/photo/1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">forecast</a> previous BTC price tops, has hit a “rare” high.
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="vdd-multiple-hits-rare-high">VDD multiple hits “rare” high</h2>
Bitcoin has so far failed to flip either new all-time highs or its previous peak from 2021 to firm support.
<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-analysis-cpi-whales-btc-price-below-69k" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Some remain confident</a> that BTC price discovery will return, but those analyzing on-chain signals are becoming concerned.
Among them is analyst TXMC, host of YouTube channel Alpha Beta Soup.
Uploading fresh VDD multiple data to X this week, TXMC revealed that the chart had printed highs seen only shortly before BTC/USD puts in macro tops.
“The rare 4.0 print,” he wrote in accompanying commentary.
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “Has on-chain momentum topped?”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true"><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/a475f8dd-85a7-4c87-879f-7c6205f35962.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">Bitcoin VDD multiple. Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/TXMCtrades/status/1770799440678257063" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TXMC</a>
 </figcaption>
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The VDD Multiple compares on-chain spending to historical averages to determine when market psychology is dictating a blow-off top for price. The “value days destroyed” component relates to the number of days for which coins were previously dormant when used on-chain.
In March, when the VDD multiple was at around 3.5, TXMC already described it as “overheated.”
“It isn’t perfect, but notable,” he wrote at the time.
This year nonetheless includes a key difference from early 2021. During the VDD multiple’s last spike, BTC/USD had already doubled its prior all-time high of $20,000.
“We are printing the same value in 2024 while still AT the prior all-time high,” TXMC added, concluding that the overall picture was “uncertain.”
<h2 id="rsi-preserves-key-support-after-flush">RSI preserves key support after flush</h2>
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-resets-bull-market-btc-price-april-dip" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph recently reported</a>, other chart metrics have been giving traders cause for cautious optimism.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/path-to-80k-5-things-bitcoin-this-week" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Plotting the path to $80K — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week</a>
Among them are classic pointers such as the relative strength index (RSI), which recently saw a “reset” to levels that last appeared in late January.
Daily RSI stood at 53 on April 10, per data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCGBP/?exchange=BINANCE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TradingView</a>&nbsp;— still far below the traditional “overbought” zone, which begins at 70 and tends to accompany the steepest portion of BTC price cycle gains.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/e55e0e42-7e49-4da4-8a22-8dbf06fbc334.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
“In a strong bullish trend, it’s usually time for a bounce when Bitcoin’s daily RSI retests ±50. It’s retesting ±50 right now,” popular traded Jelle <a href="https://twitter.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1777964951522443364" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">noted</a> on the day.
Popular trader Alan Tardigrade reiterated promising signals on 4-hour RSI timeframes in the form of a hidden bullish divergence with price.
"Hidden bullish divergence happens here while $BTC makes a higher low (HL), but RSI is showing a lower low (LL). This signals the possible uptrend continuation," he <a href="https://twitter.com/TATrader_Alan/status/1777779715081986274/photo/1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">told</a> X followers alongside a chart.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/07a0bd5c-46d3-4b41-88b2-c09754c84dcb.png">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">BTC/USD chart with RSI data. Source: Alan Tardigrade/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Monthly timeframes continue to hold above 70, a feature on the radar of controversial analyst Plan B and others in advance of Bitcoin’s incoming <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-2024" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">block subsidy halving</a>.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true"><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/ac5e5a76-0404-4c57-8677-90b7b5921911.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">Source: Plan B
 </figcaption>
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin RSI points to short-term gains as metric signals BTC price top

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