Based

Bitcoin

when

<h2 id="key-points">Key Points</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, has suggested that Bitcoin may have already peaked at $70,000 based on an “exponential decay” pattern.</li>
 <li>Other analysts and models, however, predict that Bitcoin could reach up to $210,000 before the end of its bull run.</li>
</ul>
<p>Peter Brandt, an experienced trader, has proposed that <a href="https://crypto.ro/en/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin</a> may have already reached its highest point in this cycle at $70,000. This assertion is based on the pattern of “exponential decay”.</p>
<h2 id="exponential-decay-pattern">Exponential Decay Pattern</h2>
<p>Brandt’s theory suggests that each successive Bitcoin bull market cycle has a peak price that is approximately 20% of the previous cycle’s peak gain. This pattern has been observed in the past three market cycles. In other words, each successful bull market cycle has lost 80% of the previous cycle’s exponential energy.</p>
<p>Using this decay rate, Brandt has estimated that the current cycle could only see a 4.5x gain from the low of around $15,500, indicating a cycle top around $70,000. This is a level that Bitcoin already achieved in March when its price reached $73,000. However, Brandt assigns only a 25% probability that Bitcoin has already peaked in this cycle.</p>
<h2 id="alternate-models">Alternate Models</h2>
<p>Giovanni Santostasi, CEO and Director of Research at Quantonomy, has countered Brandt’s theory with his own, based on long-term power law behavior. He argues that Brandt’s theory lacks significant data for substantial statistical analysis.</p>
<p>Santostasi’s model measures the percentage deviation of price peaks from the long-term power law trend, predicting a different exponential decay pattern. Based on this, he predicts a fourth cycle peak around December 2025 of around $210,000. He also predicts the bottom for the next cycle to be around $83,000.</p>
<p>Other analysts have also made predictions about Bitcoin’s peak in this cycle. Pav Hundal, Swyftx lead analyst, estimates a price of around $120,000 by the next halving in 2028. Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Trading, anticipates a potential cycle top of $180,000.</p>
<p>At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $62,528, down 15% from its all-time high in mid-March.</p>

Analysts Debate: Will Bitcoin Hit $70K or Skyrocket to $210K? BTC Cycle Peak Predictions Vary

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