Greed

Bitcoin

Bitcoin traders should not act on impulse over government BTC sell-offs, a popular analyst says.
In a <a href="https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1809293501084909592" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">post on X</a>&nbsp;on July 5, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, played down the significance of recent state offloading.
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="ki-don-t-let-government-selling-fud-ruin-your-trades">Ki: “Don’t let government selling FUD ruin your trades”</h2>
Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>)&nbsp;being sold by governments around the world is minimal compared to overall inflows to the space, Ki Young Ju argues.
In contrast to the nearly $250 billion of inflows since the latest bull market began, funds that could technically end up for sale by governments total less than $10 billion.
“Govt Bitcoin selling is overestimated,” Ki summarized. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “$224B has flowed into this market since 2023. Government-seized BTC contributes about $9B to the realized cap.”
</blockquote>
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/e2ff9d3f-a584-495e-be89-da5b50036075.jpeg" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin realized cap with government sales data. Source: Ki Young Ju
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The perspective stands out as a level-headed reaction to recent BTC price activity, which has been marked by sharp spot selling on the back of continued government selling activity in addition to <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-creditors-sell-8-2b-btc">transfers from wallets</a> linked to defunct exchange Mt. Gox.
The two actors on the radar are Germany and the United States, with the former still holding 41,200 BTC seized from various bad actors over the years, <a href="https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/germany" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">according</a> to&nbsp;data from crypto intelligence firm Arkham.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/21783279-798d-4f60-a678-35d4a9f5ec08.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: Arkham
 </figcaption>
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While the <a href="https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">Crypto Fear and Greed Index</a> shows sentiment is nearing “extreme fear,” Ki, however, sees little sense in such panic based on governments alone.
“It’s only 4% of the total cumulative realized value since 2023,” he reasoned. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “Don't let govt selling FUD ruin your trades.”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/8a5c47b9-9a0c-46e7-a27a-b5af0a5e9dbb.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Crypto Fear and Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
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</figure>
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="btc-price-further-to-fall">BTC price: Further to fall?</h2>
As Cointelegraph <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-ichimoku-cloud-btc-price-bounces-4-month-low">continues to report</a>, market observers remain vigilant over key long-term support levels as various trendlines fail.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-analysis-7-5-btc-eth-bnb-sol-xrp-doge-ton-ada-avax-shib">Price analysis 7/5: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, TON, ADA, AVAX, SHIB</a>
The <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/watch-these-bitcoin-price-levels-52k-supertrend">supertrend floor at $52,000</a> is among those closest to spot price, with calculations also seeing the chance of a return to $45,000 to bring the latest drawdown in line with historical norms.
“Classic” bull market support, meanwhile, now lies high above spot: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-loses-200-day-trendline-first-time-in-10-months">the 200-day moving average</a> along with Bitcoin’s <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/watch-btc-price-support-levels-bitcoin-tumbles-64k">short-term holder cost basis</a> at $58,550 and $64,175, respectively.
BTC/USD hit four-month lows of $53,500 on July 5, trading around $3,000 higher at the time of writing a day later, per data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*7499wx*_ga*MTQ0MzQ0NzI4Ny4xNzE2MzY1NTA0*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTcxNjM2NTUwNC4xLjEuMTcxNjM2Njg2MC4wLjAuMA..">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BINANCE" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView</a>.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/ce2ddc34-a5c3-4b8e-83d7-69b37cec5344.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin sales by gov’ts just 4% of $225B bull market inflows — Analyst

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