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After Monday’s market crash, concerns about the stability of Bitcoin’s bull run have emerged. Yet, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, a leading blockchain analytics firm, maintains a positive outlook. He suggests that, despite the recent crash, on-chain data continues to support the notion that the bull market for Bitcoin remains intact. 
<h2 id="bitcoin-on-chain-analysis-bullish-arguments">Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: Bullish Arguments</h2> 
#1 Bitcoin Hashrate 
The Bitcoin <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-hashrate-nears-record-levels-amidst-price-decline-details/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">hashrate</a>, which gauges the computational power utilized in mining and processing transactions, is nearing an all-time high (ATH). Ju notes, “Miner capitulation is nearly over, with hashrate nearing ATH. US mining costs are ~$43K per BTC, so hashrate likely stable unless prices dip below this.” 
#2 Whale Behavior 
Significant Bitcoin inflows into custody wallets are another argument to be bullish, indicating strong accumulation by large-scale investors, often referred to as ‘whales’. Ju highlights, “Significant BTC inflows into custody wallets. Permanent Holder addresses increased by 404K BTC, including 40K BTC in US spot ETFs over the last 30 days. New whales are accumulating.” 
#3 Retail Investor Participation 
The current subdued participation of <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bullish-reversal-for-bitcoin-retail-investors-flood-back-as-new-addresses-reach-4-month-peak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">retail investors</a> is similar to patterns observed in mid-2020. Ju remarks, “Retail investors are mostly absent, similar to mid-2020.” This absence might contribute to less volatility, as retail trading often leads to rapid price swings. 
#4 Old Whales Still HODL 
Between March and June, long-term holders (those who have held for over three years) transferred their Bitcoin holdings to newer investors. Currently, there is no significant selling pressure from these veteran holders. 
<h2 id="bearish-on-chain-data">Bearish On-Chain Data</h2> 
#1 Macro Risks 
On the downside, Ju points out macroeconomic risks and recent market activities that could impact Bitcoin’s price stability: “Macro risks could lead to forced sell-offs. There were large crypto deposits by <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/news/jump-tradings-covert-operations-how-they-made-1-28-billion-from-terra-labs-downfall/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">Jump Trading</a> recently, and Binance hit YTD high in daily deposits.” 
#2 Borderline On-Chain Indicators 
While some on-chain indicators have recently turned bearish, these are borderline, according to Ju. He asserts, “Some on-chain indicators turned bearish but are borderline. If bearish trends persist for over two weeks, market recovery could be challenging.” 
#3 Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Flags Bear Phase 
Notably, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has also flagged a bear phase for the first time since January 2023 (high blue area in the chart), warranting close observation. CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno added that this indicator has previously identified limited bear phases during significant market events like the COVID sell-off in March 2020 and the Chinese mining ban in May 2021. Moreover, it also correctly anticipated the start of the bear market in November 2021. 
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-633684 size-full" src="https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GUTZskDXgAAQ-Fs.jpg?resize=3840%2C2160" alt="Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator " width="3840" height="2160" srcset="https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GUTZskDXgAAQ-Fs.jpg?resize=3840%2C2160?w=3840 3840w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GUTZskDXgAAQ-Fs.jpg?resize=3840%2C2160?w=460 460w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GUTZskDXgAAQ-Fs.jpg?resize=3840%2C2160?w=768 768w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GUTZskDXgAAQ-Fs.jpg?resize=3840%2C2160?w=860 860w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GUTZskDXgAAQ-Fs.jpg?resize=3840%2C2160?w=1536 1536w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GUTZskDXgAAQ-Fs.jpg?resize=3840%2C2160?w=2048 2048w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GUTZskDXgAAQ-Fs.jpg?resize=3840%2C2160?w=750 750w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GUTZskDXgAAQ-Fs.jpg?resize=3840%2C2160?w=1140 1140w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GUTZskDXgAAQ-Fs.jpg?resize=3840%2C2160?w=3000 3000w" sizes="(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" data-recalc-dims="1"> 
Despite these bearish undercurrents, Ju remains cautiously optimistic about the potential of Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high until the end of the year. “As long as the Bitcoin price stays above $45K, it could break its all-time high again within a year, imo. Some indicators are showing<a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/8-reasons-bitcoin-bear-phase-just-a-boogeyman/" target="_blank" rel="noopener "> bearish signals</a>. However, they could still recover with a rebound, so we need to watch if it stays at this level for a week or two. If it lingers longer, the risk of a bear market grows, and recovery may be difficult if it lasts over a month,” Ju concludes. 
At press time, BTC traded at $56,639. 
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-633686 size-full" src="https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/BTCUSDT_2024-08-07_09-24-42.png?resize=3628%2C1675" alt="Bitcoin price" width="3628" height="1675" srcset="https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/BTCUSDT_2024-08-07_09-24-42.png?resize=3628%2C1675?w=3628 3628w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/BTCUSDT_2024-08-07_09-24-42.png?resize=3628%2C1675?w=460 460w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/BTCUSDT_2024-08-07_09-24-42.png?resize=3628%2C1675?w=768 768w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/BTCUSDT_2024-08-07_09-24-42.png?resize=3628%2C1675?w=860 860w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/BTCUSDT_2024-08-07_09-24-42.png?resize=3628%2C1675?w=1536 1536w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/BTCUSDT_2024-08-07_09-24-42.png?resize=3628%2C1675?w=2048 2048w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/BTCUSDT_2024-08-07_09-24-42.png?resize=3628%2C1675?w=750 750w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/BTCUSDT_2024-08-07_09-24-42.png?resize=3628%2C1675?w=1140 1140w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/BTCUSDT_2024-08-07_09-24-42.png?resize=3628%2C1675?w=3000 3000w" sizes="(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" data-recalc-dims="1">

Bitcoin Bull Run Still Intact? Here’s What On-Chain Data Says

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