Bitcoin

Bitcoin&nbsp;may need a matter of months to stage a rebound and follow gold, one analyst argues.
In an X <a href="https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1823125105331028476" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">post</a> on Aug. 13, Charles Edwards, the founder of quantitative Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>)&nbsp;and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, said BTC price action still looks “promising.”
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="rough-rule-of-thumb-sees-bitcoin-lagging-gold">“Rough rule of thumb” sees Bitcoin lagging gold</h2>
Bitcoin has disappointed on a macro level in recent months,&nbsp;<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-risks-double-top-5-things-bitcoin-this-week"></a><a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-risks-double-top-5-things-bitcoin-this-week">staying rangebound while other assets head higher</a>.
Before last week’s mass sell-off, gold and United States stock indexes were hitting records, while Bitcoin failed to copy them.
Now, Capriole’s Edwards says there may not be long to wait.
Uploading a chart comparing BTC price action to that of gold since late 2019, Edwards concluded that once gold begins a new trend, Bitcoin simply requires time before following suit.
Overlaying XAU/USD onto BTC/USD, it becomes apparent that the latency period for Bitcoin is around three months.
“As a rough rule of thumb, macro Bitcoin trends are often lagged behind gold by a few months,” he commented. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “Looks promising.”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/a8de6e78-4b12-465e-a6ea-17421d755ff1.png" alt="Bitcoin price may need 3 months to copy gold bull run — Analyst" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD chart. Source: Charles Edwards
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="forecast-sees-favorable-btc-price-growth">Forecast sees “favorable” BTC price growth</h2>
XAU/USD hit its most recent all-time high in mid-July, data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*7499wx*_ga*MTQ0MzQ0NzI4Ny4xNzE2MzY1NTA0*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTcxNjM2NTUwNC4xLjEuMTcxNjM2Njg2MC4wLjAuMA..">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BINANCE" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView</a> confirms.
Related:&nbsp;<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/more-extreme-fear-ftx-crash-5-things-bitcoin-this-week">More ‘extreme fear’ than FTX crash — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week</a>
Looking toward the future, other popular Bitcoin market commentators suggested that the gold narrative could produce results for long-suffering hodlers in 2025.
William Clemente, co-founder of crypto research firm Reflexivity, highlighted another chart comparing gold price behavior following the launch of its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2004.
“Gold had roughly 10-12 months of consolidation before marking up post-launch,” he <a href="https://x.com/WClementeIII/status/1822983956133810597" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">noted</a> on X alongside a chart from Quinn Thompson, founder and chief investment officer of macro crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “If BTC follows, confluence with other factors pointing towards favorable performance into 2025.”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/893a4f47-d707-4dd5-adc1-3fb1ab40258f.png" alt="Bitcoin price may need 3 months to copy gold bull run — Analyst" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD chart. Source: William Clemente
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Zooming out, meanwhile, both gold and Bitcoin remain in a privileged position. Even after its early August drop, Bitcoin remains the year’s best-performing macro asset, with gold close behind.
“Bitcoin and Gold are now the top performing major assets in 2024. Going back to 2011, we’ve never seen these two in the #1/#2 spots for any calendar year,” Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at wealth management firm Creative Planning, <a href="https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1819854758095544555" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">wrote</a> in part of X commentary on Aug. 4.
BTC/USD is up 34% year-to-date, with XAU/USD at around 19%.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price may need 3 months to copy gold bull run — Analyst

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