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Despite the recent Bitcoin correction to five-month lows, Bitcoin could extend its bull rally for another year.
Bitcoin’s (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" text="null" title="null" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) price could rally for another 350 days, based on the current trough-to-peak ratio, which analyzes the price tops and bottoms printed by an asset or security.
Based on Bitcoin’s ratios during the previous cycles, the bull run will extend into the third quarter of 2025, according to a report by Bybit and BlockScholes, shared with Cointelegraph.
<blockquote>
 “With a current trough-to-peak ratio of 3.5x, significantly lower than the 20x observed in prior cycles, the report suggests that the rally may continue for another 350 days before surpassing previous peaks.”
</blockquote>
Bitcoin is currently recovering from a&nbsp; <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-crash-300-billion-largest-three-day-plunge-crypto-one-year" text="null" title="null" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$510 billion crypto market sell-off</a>.
<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-dip-retest-55k-next-leg-up" text="null" title="null" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin fell below a key post-halving</a> growth trajectory when it dropped under $63,000, but recovering the trendline before the end of 2024 cut put Bitcoin back on track to the $100,000 mark, based on previous Bitcoin halving cycles.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-at-perfect-macro-setup-but-dip-below-58-k-risks-500-m-in-liquidations" text="null" title="null" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin at ‘perfect’ macro setup, but dip below $58K risks $500M in liquidations</a>
<h2 id="bitcoin-is-in-the-second-phase-of-the-bull-cycle-bybit">Bitcoin is in the second phase of the bull cycle: Bybit</h2>
Based on historical chart patterns, Bitcoin is currently in the second phase of the cycle, according to Nathan Thompson, the lead tech writer at Bybit. Thompson told Cointelegraph:
<blockquote>
 “First, at the beginning of the cycle, we see BTC spot price recover from its cycle lows back towards the all-time high value that it recorded in the previous cycle. Then, we have in each case observed BTC spot price push past that previous all-time high into new, unexplored higher price levels.”
</blockquote> <img alt="Bitcoin’s bull rally will continue another 350 days: Bybit" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/Screenshot%202024-08-14%20114934">
Thompson’s analysis aligns with those of other notable crypto analysts, including Rekt Capital. The popular analyst <a href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1823027602551894506" text="null" title="null" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">believes</a> that we are 42.5% through the current bull cycle, based on previous Bitcoin halving cycles.<hard_break></hard_break>
<figure><img alt="Bitcoin’s bull rally will continue another 350 days: Bybit" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/Screenshot%202024-08-14%20114519">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bull market progress. Source: <a href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1823027602551894506" text="null" title="null" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Rekt Capital</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-drops-below-59k-institutional-stablecoin-pause" text="null" title="null" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin price drops below $59K as institutions stop buying stablecoins</a>
<h3 id="institutions-are-mainly-driving-the-2024-bitcoin-rally">Institutions are mainly driving the 2024 Bitcoin rally</h3>
Retail investors had a smaller rate of participation in the current cycle due to the lower level of personal savings, following a period of high inflation.
<figure><img alt="Bitcoin’s bull rally will continue another 350 days: Bybit" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/Screenshot%202024-08-14%20115119">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin correlation with US equities. Source: Bybit &amp; BlockScholes
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Based on Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional equities, institutional investors have mainly driven Bitcoin’s 2024 rally, according to the report:
<blockquote>
 “The changing intra-asset correlation structure between crypto and meme coins suggests that a different type of investor may be behind the most recent rally in prices: institutions. The renewed co-movement with equities coincides with the launch of BTC Spot ETFs in early January 2024, as well as the unlocking of a new pool of demand for crypto.”&nbsp;
</blockquote>
Moreover, the inflows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been highly correlated with Bitcoin’s peaks and lows since their launch.
<figure><img alt="Bitcoin’s bull rally will continue another 350 days: Bybit" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/Screenshot%202024-08-14%20115346">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin ETF inflows correlation with BTC rally, 2024. Source: Bybit &amp; BlockScholes
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/explained/what-are-etf-fund-flows-and-why-do-they-matter" text="null" title="null" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETF inflows</a> can significantly contribute to a cryptocurrency’s price appreciation. For Bitcoin, ETFs accounted for about <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-about-75-new-investment" text="null" title="null" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">75% of new investment</a> in the cryptocurrency by Feb. 15 as it surpassed the $50,000 mark
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/china-crypto-ban-investors/" text="null" title="null" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">How Chinese traders and miners get around China’s crypto ban</a>

Bitcoin’s bull rally will continue another 350 days: Bybit

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Cointelegraph

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