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Key Points
- Ethereum (ETH) is showing signs of weakness against Bitcoin (BTC), with its bullish divergence invalidated.
- Global institutions are selling off their Ethereum holdings, contributing to the cryptocurrency’s bearish trend.
If Bitcoin continues to surge towards the $61k-$62k range after reclaiming $57k, Ethereum may experience further decline. Currently, Ethereum lacks a robust support level, and traders are advised to wait for improved market conditions before anticipating any significant rebound.
Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index and Trading Volume
The ETH/BTC Relative Strength Index (RSI) underscores this divergence, with price action decreasing while the RSI forms higher lows, hinting at a potential reversal. The declining trading volume also suggests that Ethereum may soon dip below the 0.04 BTC level. If Bitcoin weakens, this could provide an opportunity for Ethereum to reverse its trend. However, until there’s evidence to the contrary, Ethereum’s bearish trend is expected to persist.
Institutions Selling Off Ethereum
Metalpha’s remaining Ethereum holdings now stand at just 23.5k ETH, worth $55 million. The company has also liquidated its Layer 2 tokens such as Optimism (OP), while also reducing its staked ETH (stETH) holdings to 1,907 stETH.
Ethereum’s weakness against Bitcoin is likely to continue due to a decrease in Futures trading volume on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). In August, it fell by 28.7% to $14.8 billion, marking its lowest level since 2023.
Ethereum’s price year-to-date is also in the negative, with its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording negative net cumulative flows. The Ethereum Foundation is also reportedly selling Ethereum, adding further pressure on the price. This suggests that Ethereum may continue to decline before potentially rebounding, possibly in Q4 2024.
Finally, both retail traders and institutional investors agree that Ethereum remains bearish in the current market environment. This consensus between small and large market players suggests that Ethereum’s downtrend may persist until market dynamics change or a significant catalyst emerges to support a price recovery.