Donald Trump

President Trump

President Donald Trump

Prediction markets saw significant growth in the third quarter, driven by bets on the upcoming United States presidential election, which could have wide-reaching effects on cryptocurrency regulations. 
The betting volume on prediction markets rose over 565.4% in Q3 to reach $3.1 billion across the three largest markets, up from just $463.3 million in the second quarter.
The significant growth in prediction market volume was attributed to increasing bets as the US elections draw near, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/2024-q3-crypto-report" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/2024-q3-crypto-report">according</a> to an Oct. 14 CoinGecko report, which said:
<blockquote>
 “Prediction markets picked up steam in 2024 Q3, growing 565.4% due to pundits betting on the upcoming US elections.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Prediction markets rise 565% in Q3, fueled by US elections" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/01928a70-cca3-7a0a-864c-8462d0d88301" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Top three crypto prediction markets. Source: CoinGecko
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/elon-musk-polymarket-more-accurate-than-polls-actual-money" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Decentralized prediction markets</a> could be more accurate in predicting the results of the election than traditional polling, according to billionaire Elon Musk.
Prediction markets like Polymarket enable users to stake stablecoins like USD Coin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/usdc-price-index" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/usdc-price-index">USDC</a>) on the outcome of specific events.
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-election-outcome-wont-stop-bitcoin-100k-dan-tapiero" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">US election outcome won’t stop Bitcoin from hitting $100K: Dan Tapiero</a>
<h2 id="polymarket-accounts-for-99-of-market-share">Polymarket accounts for 99% of market share</h2>
Polymarket, the most prominent decentralized platform, dominated the market with over a 99% market share as of September.
Over 46% of Polymarket’s year-to-date (YTD) volume was driven by the US presidential elections poll, according to CoinGecko’s report, which added:
<blockquote>
 “Some $1.7 billion of bets have been placed on the “US Presidential Election Winner” since the start of 2024, accounting for ~46% of Polymarket’s yearly volume.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Prediction markets rise 565% in Q3, fueled by US elections" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/01928a71-6b26-73f2-bfee-9e2a1eb07181" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Polymarket TVL, year-to-date. Source: DefiLlama
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Betting volume on Polymarket grew 713%, while transactions increased by 848% during the third quarter.
At the time of publication, Polymarket held more than $172 million in total value locked (TVL), <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://defillama.com/protocol/polymarket#information" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://defillama.com/protocol/polymarket#information">according</a> to DefiLlama data.
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/wef-sandbox-first-approach-defi-regulation" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">WEF talks DeFi regulation, HKDA stablecoin integrates Chainlink: Finance Redefined</a>
<h2 id="former-president-trump-leads-harris-on-polymarket">Former President Trump leads Harris on Polymarket</h2>
Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by eight points on Polymarket.
According to Polymarket data, Trump has a 53.8% chance of winning the election, while only 45.3% of Polymarket users have bet on Harris.
<figure>
 <img alt="Prediction markets rise 565% in Q3, fueled by US elections" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/01928a72-1e93-76e9-9697-622c4f97c66c" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Presidential Election Winner 2024. Source: Polymarket
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The odds flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, marking a sharp reversal from September. By Oct. 12, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/former-president-trump-gains-10-point-lead-harris-polymarket" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Trump was leading</a> by over 10 points, Cointelegraph reported.<iframe width="100%" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ay_wUTMNsPQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
US Elections, Trump, and Macro: Impact on Crypto. Source: YouTube
Magazine: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/nansen-alex-svanevik-bitcoin-ethereum-kamala-harris-unrealized-gains-tax-x-hall-of-flame/" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Harris’ unrealized gains tax could ‘tank markets’: Nansen’s Alex Svanevik, X Hall of Flame</a>

Prediction markets rise 565% in Q3, fueled by US elections

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