2024

Donald Trump

Thomas

As the 2024 presidential election approaches in the United States, a striking contrast has emerged between traditional polling methods and prediction markets regarding the race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.&nbsp;
Currently, platforms like <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Kalshi</a> and <a href="https://polymarket.com/elections" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polymarket</a> indicate a significant lead for Donald Trump, with Kalshi assigning him a 55% probability of winning compared to 45% for Vice President Kamala Harris.
This contrasts sharply with national polls, which often show Harris slightly ahead, such as a recent New York Times tracker <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">indicating</a> a 50% to 47% lead for her​.
Supporters of prediction markets argue that these platforms are more responsive to real-time developments, such as debates and breaking news, allowing for quicker updates on public sentiment.
Thomas Miller, a data science professor, asserts that political betting sites effectively aggregate the “wisdom of the crowd,” which could lead to more accurate forecasts​. A Miller-run website that predicts the outcome of the Electoral College using PredictIt contract pricing currently projects Trump to win by a landslide.
However, skepticism persists regarding the reliability of these markets. Concerns about potential manipulation have arisen, especially following a surge in pro-Trump betting activity.&nbsp;
Some analysts have noted a series of significant bets favoring Donald Trump, particularly from an anonymous user on Polymarket. Additionally, Elon Musk’s posts on October 7 highlighted Trump’s <a href="https://www.cryptotimes.io/2024/10/07/trump-leads-harris-by-12-post-rally-with-elon-musk/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">advantage in prediction markets</a>, potentially motivating other Trump supporters to place their bets. According to Election Betting Odds, a noticeable increase in Trump’s lead occurred around that time.
PredictIt has cautioned that its contract for a Trump victory is nearing the maximum trader limit, which could restrict further trading for bettors​.
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
 Also Read: <a href="https://www.cryptotimes.io/2024/10/15/crypto-gets-a-colour-its-black-courtesy-kamala-harris/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Crypto Gets a Colour- It’s Black, Courtesy Kamala Harris</a>
</blockquote>

Traditional Polls vs. Prediction Markets: who’s winning 2024?

The Crypto Times

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