2024

Elon Musk

The behavior of top Polymarket bettors has raised concerns about potential manipulation of the decentralized prediction market’s accuracy. 
Former President Donald Trump’s rising odds in the 2024 United States presidential election have allegedly been significantly influenced by Polymarket user “Fredi9999,” a major bettor who holds more than $20 million worth of pro-Trump bets. 
<figure>
 <img alt="Polymarket whale raises Trump odds, sparking manipulation concerns" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/01929f05-83f8-7823-928b-4f4c5b11b53e" title="">
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 Top Trump betters. Source: Polymarket
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The revelation comes days after <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-2-5-month-high-schiff-trump-pump" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Cointelegraph reported that Trump’s Polymarket odds</a>&nbsp;of winning the presidential elections rose to a record high of 60.2% on Oct. 16.
Trump’s growing lead has raised questions, as it appears to be unrelated to real-world events that could explain such a shift in public perception, according to Alex Momot, founder and CEO of Peanut Trade. 
Momot told Cointelegraph:
<blockquote>
 “What’s paradoxical is that the situation on Polymarket is now influencing the real world, where many people believe what they see on the platform. The upcoming US presidential election will serve as a key example for assessing the reliability of prediction markets.”
</blockquote>
As the election nears, the importance of evaluating potential manipulation in prediction markets is increasing, especially with less than three weeks remaining before <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-elections" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-elections">Election Day</a>. 
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 <img alt="Polymarket whale raises Trump odds, sparking manipulation concerns" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/01929f07-b8cf-72f3-b618-6a55c01089ce" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Presidential election winner 2024. Source: Polymarket 
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Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-overtakes-harris-potus-bitcoin-blackrock-fink" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Trump leads Harris, but POTUS won’t matter for Bitcoin: BlackRock’s Fink</a>
<h2 id="is-fredi9999-controlling-the-top-trump-bettor-accounts">Is “Fredi9999” controlling the top Trump bettor accounts?</h2>
Fredi has significantly influenced the price of the Trump prediction market, according to pseudonymous political bettor Domer.
Moreover, transaction patterns suggest that Fredi could control the top four Trump whales on Polymarket. Domer wrote in an Oct. 16 X <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1846597997507092901" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">post</a>:
<blockquote>
 “The accounts all receive very large deposits from Kraken and immediately start betting on Trump everywhere. Theo received a large deposit and plowed it into Trump winning the popular vote, sending it from 26% to 39% in a few hours.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Polymarket whale raises Trump odds, sparking manipulation concerns" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/01929f06-0d63-799c-b1cb-4f456c8d2f35" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Top Trump bettors on Polymarket. Source: Domer
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The accounts reportedly received deposits of $1 million or $500,000, fueling suspicion that funds are being strategically placed to sway Trump’s odds. 
When asked about the Polymarket whale’s identity and motivation, Domer told Cointelegraph:
<blockquote>
 “My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher, and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”
</blockquote>
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-election-drives-crypto-prediction-markets-growth-2024" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Prediction markets rise 565% in Q3, fueled by US elections</a>
<h2 id="polymarket-s-reliability-questioned-by-recent-poll-swings">Polymarket’s reliability questioned by recent poll swings</h2>
Polymarket’s growing influence as a source of information raises concerns about its vulnerability to manipulation, Momot said:
<blockquote>
 “It’s not surprising that the time has come for someone to try manipulating the platform using financial resources. The situation we’re seeing now is likely to become more common, especially with every new high-stakes bet. We’ll witness more instances of multi-accounting and fake address claims aimed at falsifying outcomes.”
</blockquote>
However, billionaire Elon Musk believes decentralized prediction markets <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/elon-musk-polymarket-more-accurate-than-polls-actual-money" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/elon-musk-polymarket-more-accurate-than-polls-actual-money">could be more accurate in predicting </a><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/elon-musk-polymarket-more-accurate-than-polls-actual-money" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">election</a>&nbsp;results than traditional polling. Musk made the comments&nbsp;after recently ramping up his support for Trump.
<h2 id="trump-s-odds-rise-across-traditional-betting-platforms">Trump’s odds rise across traditional betting platforms</h2>
Trump’s odds for a potential victory have also been rising across traditional betting markets, mirroring the Polymarket odds, but to a lesser degree.
Trump’s odds stood at 60.7% on Polymarket at 11:19 am UTC on Oct. 18.
Meanwhile, Trump’s odds stood at 58.8% on <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://betting.betfair.com/betfair-predicts/us-trackers/" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Betfair</a>, 57% on <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Kalshi</a>, 56% on <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Predictit</a> and 58% on <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-election-winner" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Smarkets</a>.
<figure>
 <img alt="Politics, Predictions, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, US Elections 2024" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/01929f5d-9fad-7ac8-937e-1f31a9a2f6fa" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Trump vs. Harris betting market. Source: Betfair
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Looking at general betting odds compiled from the top websites, Trump’s odds for victory stand at 58.1%, while Harris’ odds are currently at 40.4%, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president">according</a> to data compiled by RealClearPolling.<iframe width="100%" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ay_wUTMNsPQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
US Elections, Trump, and Macro: Impact on Crypto. Source: YouTube
Magazine: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/nansen-alex-svanevik-bitcoin-ethereum-kamala-harris-unrealized-gains-tax-x-hall-of-flame/" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Harris’ unrealized gains tax could ‘tank markets’: Nansen’s Alex Svanevik, X Hall of Flame</a>

Polymarket whale raises Trump odds, sparking manipulation concerns

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