Donald Trump

President Donald Trump

Elon Musk

A sudden 20-point <a href="https://thecoinrise.com/trump-surpasses-harris-in-polymarket-betting-gaining-50-6-odds-for-victory/">lead for former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris</a> on the Polymarket prediction platform has raised eyebrows, with some questioning whether the results have been manipulated. However, Tarek Mansour, founder of the rival Kalshi prediction market, has pushed back against these concerns. He claimed that the results reflect genuine market sentiment, not artificial manipulation. 
Mansour <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/prediction-markets-not-manipulated-kalshi-founder">stated</a> that contrary to reports of large, whale-like investors skewing the odds in favor of Trump, the data shows that the median bet size for Harris is actually larger than for Trump. 
According to Kalshi’s figures, the median bet for Harris stands at $85, compared to $58 for Trump. Mansour also pointed out that while fewer people are betting larger amounts on Harris, more individual bettors are putting their money on Trump, which tracks with the 20-point lead reflected on Polymarket. 
<h2 id="span-style-font-weight-400-american-vs-global-prediction-markets-span">American vs. Global Prediction Markets</h2> 
One key point Mansour raised is the distinction between Kalshi, an “American-only” platform, and <a href="https://thecoinrise.com/cftc-targets-offshore-crypto-betting-platforms-like-polymarket/">Polymarket, which operates globally</a>. This difference has fueled accusations that foreign actors could be manipulating the odds on Polymarket to favor Trump. 
However, Mansour argued that the alignment between Kalshi and Polymarket’s results weakens this theory. In his view, these prediction markets are a new source of truth, providing more reliable insights than traditional polling because they reflect financial commitments rather than opinions. 
Billionaire Elon Musk has similarly voiced his belief that prediction markets are often more accurate than polls, largely because “money is on the line.” However, critics remain cautious, particularly given that U.S. residents cannot legally participate in Polymarket. While Kalshi restricts its user base to American citizens, the global nature of Polymarket leaves its data open to potential foreign influence. 
<h2 id="span-style-font-weight-400-a-dramatic-shift-in-october-span">A Dramatic Shift in October</h2> 
Despite Harris leading Trump on Polymarket for much of August and September, the landscape began to shift dramatically in October. While Trump initially managed only a slim lead, his odds of winning the <a href="https://thecoinrise.com/trump-surges-ahead-of-kamala-harris-by-10-points-on-polymarket/">presidency skyrocketed during the first two weeks</a> of the month. 
This sudden surge, alongside the ongoing debate about manipulation, continues to stoke uncertainty around prediction markets and their potential impact on the 2024 election. 
The post <a href="https://thecoinrise.com/trumps-20-point-lead-over-harris-on-polymarket-sparks-manipulation-concerns/">Trump’s 20-Point Lead Over Harris on Polymarket Sparks Manipulation Concerns</a> appeared first on <a href="https://thecoinrise.com/">TheCoinrise.com</a>.

Trump’s 20-Point Lead Over Harris on Polymarket Sparks Manipulation Concerns

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