Ethereum

2024

Solana

Solana (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/solana-price-index" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/solana-price-index">SOL</a>) is starting to capture the spotlight as a serious contender to Ethereum (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-price">ETH</a>), even though its market capitalization is about four-times smaller than the leading smart contracts platform.
On Oct. 23, the SOL/ETH trading pair climbed to a new record high of around 0.0692 ETH. The move is part of a prevailing bull run that has seen it rallying by 600% since 2023.
<figure><img alt="The real flippening? Solana price hits new record high against Ethereum" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192be70-0fc2-755b-b1f9-0d62ccd08fc0" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 SOL/ETH weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Solana’s rise against Ethereum has ignited discussions about its potential to flip Ethereum’s market capitalization in the not-too-distant future.
<figure><img alt="The real flippening? Solana price hits new record high against Ethereum" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192be2f-b2ec-790e-8590-c72391d516fa" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/CryptoAnglio/status/1849146476947218933" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/CryptoAnglio/status/1849146476947218933">X</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
At the center of this bullish Solana outlook is its increased network usage and upcoming updates that could potential enable it to reduce Ethereum’s dominance in the blockchain space.
<h2 id="solana-s-dex-volume-nears-ethereum">Solana’s DEX volume nears Ethereum</h2>
One of the key drivers behind Solana’s recent surge appears to be the explosion of decentralized exchange (DEX) usage on its platform.
For instance, Solana’s daily DEX trading volume (gray) <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://dune.com/ally/solana-memecoins" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://dune.com/ally/solana-memecoins">has seen consistent growth</a> since August 2023, with a clear acceleration beginning in early 2024. It has occasionally matched or even surpassed Ethereum’s DEX volume (green) during peak periods.
<figure><img alt="The real flippening? Solana price hits new record high against Ethereum" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192be65-aee8-7eb8-bf11-fd407a9e6bb6" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Solana vs Ethereum DEX volumes. Source: Ally/Dune Analytics
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Ethereum continues to dominate DEX trading by volume, maintaining an average daily trading range significantly higher than most layer-1 competitors, including Solana.
Still, Solana’s consistent increase indicates a growing appeal for traders on its network, suggesting a shift in user behavior toward Solana-based DEX platforms.
The <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/solana-vs-ethereum-blockchain-comparison" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/solana-vs-ethereum-blockchain-comparison">lower transaction fees</a> and rapid transaction speeds on Solana have made it an attractive destination for launching an incalculable number of new tokens, many of which fall under the <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/memecoin-craze-fuels-solana-price-rally-is-180-sol-the-next-stop" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/memecoin-craze-fuels-solana-price-rally-is-180-sol-the-next-stop">memecoin category</a>.
Most Solana DEX users have engaged in memecoin-related activities (gray bar in the chart below) across 2024 that have exploded in volume in recent weeks.
<figure><img alt="The real flippening? Solana price hits new record high against Ethereum" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192be6b-2899-74ca-b006-e6401ee9b98c" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Solana trader by sector. Source: Ally/Dune Analytics
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The “WIF &amp; BONK sector” (orange), representing popular memecoin projects, has also seen an uptick, signaling that these projects are a big part of Solana’s increased activity in recent times.
“ETH might actually never go to all time highs again,” analyst Jack <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/depression2019/status/1849088510759743971" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/depression2019/status/1849088510759743971">argues</a>, adding:
<blockquote>
 “SOL is really doing what I didn’t think was ever actually possible: replacing the network as a whole and taking all its users.”
</blockquote>
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-ico-participant-dumps-3000-eth-7-6-m-cash-out" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-ico-participant-dumps-3000-eth-7-6-m-cash-out">Ethereum ICO participant dumps 3,000 ETH for $7.6M cash out</a>
<h2 id="can-sol-actually-flip-eth">Can SOL actually “flip” ETH?</h2>
The possibility of a “flippening,” where Solana surpasses Ethereum in both technical capability and market valuation, could rise due to memecoins in particular, as they have been a critical driver of Solana’s recent growth.
Historically, memecoins have thrived in bullish market conditions when speculation runs high, but they have <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S154461232200397X" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S154461232200397X">faced severe corrections</a> during market downturns.
Today, Solana must grow 3.5 times its current market capitalization to reach Ethereum’s $304 billion valuation. However, analysts at VanEck&nbsp;<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.marketvector.com/insights/mvis-onehundred/eth-vs-sol" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">speculate</a>&nbsp;that Solana could reach 50% of ETH’s value in the coming years if it continues to outperform Ethereum in terms of daily active users and transaction volume.
<figure><img alt="The real flippening? Solana price hits new record high against Ethereum" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192be8d-87a6-7f15-824a-d94f186fca87" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 SOL vs ETH market capitalization. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://blog.bitfinex.com/education/can-solana-flip-ethereum/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://blog.bitfinex.com/education/can-solana-flip-ethereum/">suggest</a> that Solana’s success hinges on expanding its user base beyond speculative traders. To achieve long-term, sustainable growth, Solana needs to attract DeFi enthusiasts, traditional finance institutions, and enterprises.
They noted that the <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/solana-flip-ethereum-needs-chatgpt-moment-analysts" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/solana-flip-ethereum-needs-chatgpt-moment-analysts">Firedancer upgrade</a> in 2025, which aims to boost Solana’s capacity to handle up to 1 million transactions per second, could potentially make its network more appealing to larger investors and institutions
Excerpts from their Bitfinex report:
<blockquote>
 “If Solana can capitalise on this [Firedancer] growth, the ‘flippening,’ where Solana surpasses Ethereum in market cap, could become more than just speculative theory.”
</blockquote>
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/solana-has-100-m-active-wallets-but-most-are-empty" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/solana-has-100-m-active-wallets-but-most-are-empty">Solana has 100M active wallets, but most are empty</a>
<h2 id="technicals-hint-at-a-big-pullback-in-2025">Technicals hint at a big pullback in 2025</h2>
Solana’s technicals, however, are already looking extremely overvalued against Ethereum, suggesting a high possibility of a correction ahead.
At least three indicators are leaning bearish, including an overbought weekly <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal">relative strength index</a> (RSI), a bearish divergence, and a rising wedge breakdown potential.
The weekly RSI for the SOL/ETH pair is near 70, indicating that it’s entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, there is a growing divergence between the rising SOL/ETH price and the falling RSI, signaling weakening price momentum.
<figure><img alt="The real flippening? Solana price hits new record high against Ethereum" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192be93-7acb-7493-a0f0-592d3b66dfc0" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 SOL/ETH weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Lastly, Solana price is slowly climbing inside a <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/rising-wedge-breakdown-threatens-7k-bitcoin-price-target" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/rising-wedge-breakdown-threatens-7k-bitcoin-price-target">rising wedge</a>, a bearish pattern characterized by converging trendlines. A breakdown from this structure would likely lead to a sharp decline, with potential targets around the lower Fibonacci retracement levels.
If a breakdown occurs, SOL/ETH could drop into the 0.0357-0.0436 ETH range by early 2025. This target represents a potential decline of 40-50% from current levels.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The real flippening? Solana price hits new record high against Ethereum

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