2024

United

President Trump

Spokespeople for Polymarket claim to have identified the whale responsible for $28 million in pro-Trump trading positions as one unnamed French citizen with a seasoned background in finance and trading.
According to a <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/24/business/dealbook/polymarket-trump-trader.html" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">piece</a> in The New York Times DealBook, company representatives told the outlet that four separate accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie — belong to the trader.
Company spokespeople also said they found no evidence of market manipulation during the investigation, noting that the trader intentionally spread his bets across smaller positions to avoid moving the market erratically.
Polymarket also contacted the individual, who claimed the positions were based on personal sentiment regarding the outcome of the <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/4-bold-predictions-bitcoin-2024-presidential-election" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/4-bold-predictions-bitcoin-2024-presidential-election">2024 United States presidential election</a>. Polymarket maintains that the election odds on the platform are consistent with odds on competing platforms.
<figure>
 <img alt="United States, Elections, US Elections 2024" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192bf6d-eb15-7b4c-875d-6ba3b568bd8d" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Current 2024 US election odds. Source: Polymarket
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/kalshi-election-betting-contracts-multiply-after-court-win" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/kalshi-election-betting-contracts-multiply-after-court-win">Kalshi election betting contracts multiply after court win</a>
<h2 id="other-prediction-markets-reveal-similar-results">Other prediction markets reveal similar results</h2>
In October, Polymarket betting odds for the presidential election began to skew heavily toward former United States President Donald Trump — <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-whale-trump-odds-manipulation" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-whale-trump-odds-manipulation">sparking fears of market manipulation</a> — and prompting Polymarket to conduct an investigation to <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-checks-for-banned-us-users-amid-media-scrutiny" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-checks-for-banned-us-users-amid-media-scrutiny">identify potential US users</a> on the platform.
However, Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour recently argued that the <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/prediction-markets-not-manipulated-kalshi-founder" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/prediction-markets-not-manipulated-kalshi-founder">Polymarket odds were organic</a> and reflected true market sentiment. Mansour presented similar data from Kalshi — which is an “American-only” platform — that corroborated the Polymarket election odds showing Trump with a solid lead over Harris.
<figure>
 <img alt="United States, Elections, US Elections 2024" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192bf6f-b3a1-7fa6-8147-29bd3ab83edb" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Spread between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris over time. Source: Polymarket
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The former president’s odds on Polymarket <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/former-president-trump-gains-10-point-lead-harris-polymarket" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/former-president-trump-gains-10-point-lead-harris-polymarket">rose sharply in early October</a> following months of tight betting spreads between the two candidates. During the early weeks of August, Vice President Harris maintained a decisive lead over Trump of up to 10%.
That initial lead began to fade in late August and early September, putting the two candidates neck-and-neck for much of the race.
Critics of Polymarket and similar services claim these platforms are not as accurate as polls and that traders are making speculative bets without strong evidence. Supporters of these platforms argue <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/elon-musk-polymarket-more-accurate-than-polls-actual-money" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/elon-musk-polymarket-more-accurate-than-polls-actual-money">prediction markets are a public good</a> and a more accurate barometer of election sentiment than polls due to monetary incentives.
Magazine: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoiners-all-in-trump-since-bitcoin-2024-getting-risky/" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoiners-all-in-trump-since-bitcoin-2024-getting-risky/">Bitcoiners are ‘all in’ on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but it’s getting risky</a>

Polymarket claims to have identified Trump whale

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