bullish

Donald Trump

Silver

<h2 id="key-points">Key Points</h2> 
<ul> 
 <li>Pro-Bitcoin candidate Donald Trump is predicted to have a higher chance of winning the US presidential elections according to prediction sites.</li> 
 <li>BTC options traders remain bullish due to these predictions, with the asset nearing its all-time high.</li> 
</ul>  
<p>Prediction sites and top models have indicated that Donald Trump, a pro-<a href="https://coineagle.com/price/bitcoin/">Bitcoin (BTC)</a> candidate, has a greater likelihood of emerging victorious in the forthcoming US presidential elections. </p> 
<p>This information comes from a recent analysis by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, who cited prediction sites such as Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and others that were suggesting a +60% chance of a Trump victory. </p> 
<h2 id="potential-impact-on-btc">Potential Impact on BTC</h2> 
<p>Despite criticism for alleged manipulation, platforms like Polymarket and other reliable models have leaned towards Trump. </p> 
<p>Bianco pointed out that top election models like Silver Bulletin and two other popular models also predicted a +50% chance of a Trump win. </p> 
<p>This expectation has been seen as bullish by BTC market speculators. </p> 
<p>In the past few weeks, BTC has surged as Trump’s odds increased and crossed the 60% mark on Polymarket, pushing BTC to nearly $70K. Bianco referred to this correlation as an ‘election play.’ </p> 
<h2 id="market-positioning">Market Positioning</h2> 
<p>The most evident impact of this bullish expectation on Trump’s win was seen in the BTC options market. Last week, options traders were pricing a 20% chance of BTC hitting $80K by the end of November. </p> 
<p>According to Deribit data, there was nearly twice as much Open Interest in call options (betting price rally) than in put options (price decline) for contracts expiring by 8th November. </p> 
<p>The put/call ratio (PCR), a measure of options market sentiment, stood at 0.55. A value below 1 indicates a dominance of call options, signifying bullish sentiment. </p> 
<p>This 0.55 PCR reading suggested an extremely bullish sentiment in the options market, likely due to the assumption that Trump was likely to win. </p> 
<p>However, with Kamala Harris also adopting an increasingly pro-crypto stance, BTC options traders were confident that the asset could reach a new all-time high (ATH) regardless of the election outcome. </p> 
<p>At press time, BTC was valued at $67K, about 9% away from its ATH of $73.7K. </p>

Is Trump the Unseen Force Spurring Bitcoin’s Upturn?

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CoinEagle.com

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