Donald Trump

Former United States President Donald Trump’s lead on the top blockchain-based betting market is nearing 67% as a mysterious whale continues to bet on his victory in the upcoming presidential election on Nov. 5.
Trump’s odds of winning the election surpassed 66.3% on the leading <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/decentralized-prediction-markets-how-do-they-work" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">decentralized predictions market</a> on Oct. 28, according to Polymarket <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730105294053" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">data</a>.
<figure>
 <img alt="Trump election odds near 67% as Polymarket whale bets another $2M" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192d2c8-7ccf-7d27-88bd-f18b73849f76" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Presidential election winner 2024, one-month chart. Source: Polymarket
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Trump’s odds increased after a Polymarket whale, or large holder, invested another $2 million worth of USD Coin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/usdc-price-index" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">USDC</a>) tokens into pro-Trump bets.
The mysterious whale has spent $7.22 million on “Yes” shares, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1850802431166488905" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1850802431166488905">according</a> to onchain intelligence firm Lookonchain, which wrote in an Oct. 28 X post:
<blockquote>
 “Since Oct 11, the whale has spent 7.22 million $USDC to buy 11.28 million ‘Yes' shares on Donald Trump winning the US election, with an unrealized profit of $256,000.”
</blockquote>
With only seven days until the <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-elections" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">2024 US presidential election</a>, decentralized prediction markets may offer more accurate predictions than traditional polling systems, according to <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/elon-musk-polymarket-more-accurate-than-polls-actual-money" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">billionaire Elon Musk</a>.
The Polymarket odds flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, marking a sharp reversal from September. By Oct. 12, Trump <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/former-president-trump-gains-10-point-lead-harris-polymarket" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">was leading by over 10 points</a>, Cointelegraph reported.
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/mica-systemic-banking-risks-stablecoin-tether-ceo" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">EU MiCA rules pose ‘systemic’ banking risks for stablecoins — Tether CEO</a>
<h2 id="mysterious-polymarket-whale-seems-unrelated-to-fredi9999">Mysterious Polymarket whale seems unrelated to “Fredi9999”</h2>
The mysterious Polymarket whale, known as “zxgngl,” holds over 11.2 million “Yes” votes worth over $7.5 million, according to Polymarket data.
<figure>
 <img alt="Trump election odds near 67% as Polymarket whale bets another $2M" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192d2c9-ea60-71cc-9d19-e06f59eaaf24" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Zxgngl, Polymarket whale, positions. Source: Polymarket
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The increasing positions come after the top Trump bettor on Polymarket, “Fredi9999,” bolstered Trump’s odds above 60.2% by <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-whale-trump-odds-manipulation" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-whale-trump-odds-manipulation">buying over $20 million worth of “Yes” shares</a> up to Oct. 18.
Moreover, Fredi’s transaction patterns suggest that it controls four of the six largest Trump-voting accounts on Polymarket, all funded with Kraken deposits.
<figure>
 <img alt="Trump election odds near 67% as Polymarket whale bets another $2M" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192d2cb-5646-708e-87a7-9b6972d23e79" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Leading Trump bettors. Source: PolyMarket
 </figcaption>
</figure>
While 99% of zxgngl’s bets were also placed on Trump, their account was funded by Binance, not the Kraken exchange. Their transaction patterns are also different, with the last two Binance deposits being worth $338,000 and $1.68 million, respectively.
<figure>
 <img alt="Trump election odds near 67% as Polymarket whale bets another $2M" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192d2cc-29ae-762a-8b16-dbe3a90db4a0" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Zxgngl, Polymarket deposits. Source: Lookonchain
 </figcaption>
</figure>
As for Fredi, the account is likely controlled by a person with deep confidence in a Trump victory, according to pseudonymous political bettor Domer, who told Cointelegraph:
<blockquote>
 “My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”
</blockquote>
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-crypto-flops-ethereum-centralization-concerns-finance-redefined" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Trump’s crypto token flops, Ethereum centralization concerns: Finance Redefined</a>
<h2 id="us-presidential-elections-fuel-565-prediction-market-growth">US presidential elections fuel 565% prediction market growth</h2>
The upcoming US elections have boosted investor interest in prediction markets.
The betting volume on prediction markets <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-election-drives-crypto-prediction-markets-growth-2024" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">rose over 565.4%</a> in the third quarter to reach $3.1 billion across the three largest markets, up from just $463.3 million in the second quarter.
<figure>
 <img alt="Trump election odds near 67% as Polymarket whale bets another $2M" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192d2cd-fe0c-7ca1-ab97-a396ba2510ba" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Top three crypto prediction markets. Source: CoinGecko 
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This significant third-quarter growth is mainly attributed to the US elections, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/2024-q3-crypto-report" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">according</a> to an Oct. 14 CoinGecko report.
Polymarket, the most prominent decentralized betting platform, dominated the market with over a 99% market share as of September.
Magazine: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/nansen-alex-svanevik-bitcoin-ethereum-kamala-harris-unrealized-gains-tax-x-hall-of-flame/" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Harris’ unrealized gains tax could ‘tank markets’: Nansen’s Alex Svanevik, X Hall of Flame</a>

Trump election odds near 67% as Polymarket whale bets another $2M

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