Bitcoin

We Expect a Binary Reaction in the Immediate-TermNow, in terms of immediate market reaction:<h2 id="header-0">Trump Win:</h2><ul><li>Bitcoin – BTC goes higher. We likely see a lot of volatility as leverage pours into the market, but the direction is clear, and the trajectory will be sharp.</li><li>Altcoins – Altcoins are also likely to move higher as the regulatory outlook shifts overnight (but as noted below, BTC still leads).</li><li>BTC Dominance – Even though the regulatory environment for altcoins is improved, BTC will be the preferred avenue for traders initially since it is (1) the only asset that Trump has mentioned, and (2) still the primary avenue for flows into the industry. I think once BTC breaks out to a new all-time high and crypto-native traders are recapitalized from an inherent wealth effect, capital will rotate more broadly into alts. We will likely see this rotation happen toward the end of Q4 or Q1. This does not mean that one should not own alts – it simply means that one should remain selective about where they allocate. For us it is SOL and SOL beta as well as BTC L2s.</li></ul><h2 id="header-1">Harris Win:</h2><ul><li>Bitcoin – BTC goes lower. I do not think we will break below the prior range lows. Further, the profit-taking over the past several days should mitigate the violence of this drawdown.</li><li>Altcoins – Altcoins also experience a drawdown, likely one of greater magnitude than BTC.</li><li>BTC Dominance – We likely chart a path consistent with what we have seen the past couple of years, with BTC leading the market and dominance rising at a steady pace (vs a sharper peak and distribution in the event of a Trump victory).</li></ul>ChartsPlease note the charts below are meant to illustrate our directional expectation for prices as opposed to exact price targets.<img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/srd-optimized-uploads/94212d920ffb4a05925f539bd4657df7.jpeg" /> <img src="https://academy-public.coinmarketcap.com/srd-optimized-uploads/05da78a7e7bc4c209e83f652cfcdd9a4.jpg" />

A Crypto Investor’s Guide to Election Day

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