Bitcoin

April

Material

Bitcoin will bounce back “above the macro trend,” but only in 2025, a new prediction says.
In his <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/KAProductions/status/1853505091598475674" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">latest X content</a> on Nov. 4, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, saw the US presidential election casting a two-month shadow over Bitcoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) price action.
<h2 id="br-bitcoin-will-beat-macro-trend-regardless"> Bitcoin will beat macro trend “regardless”</h2>
Bitcoin traders remain primed for volatility and surprise moves as <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/live-countdown-us-elections-2024-crypto-industry" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">US election day</a> dawns, but some are already looking beyond the result.
For Alan, a Trump win would spark a “knee-jerk” reaction on BTC/USD, with the opposite happening if the Democrats hold onto power.
“Bitcoin will not make a new ATH before the votes are counted,” he concluded in one of four “assumptions” about short-term BTC price performance.
Alan noted that various support lines, including the April 2021 mid-cycle top and the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) were failing to become support, as was $69,000.
“Technical Support at the 50-Day MA is coming into focus with secondary support at the 21-Week MA, but the volatility could obliterate the technicals,” the post acknowledged.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin price needs 2 months to return 'above macro trend' — Forecast" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-11/0192fb18-0a8e-7257-ba4b-e7eabb648e00" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Keith Alan/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Moving forward, Bitcoin may have a longer-term headache due to geopolitical flux.
It may take until the new government is officially in power for the market to outperform again, which will occur in mid-January.
“Won’t get relief from this $hitstorm of politics induced anxiety, stress, chaos or market volatility until Inauguration Day, Jan 20th,” Alan concluded.
<blockquote>
 “Regardless of who wins Election2024 , by Q2 2025 Bitcoin will return to it's trajectory above the macro trend.”
</blockquote>
<h2 id="btc-price-trendline-viewed-as-downside-support">BTC price trendline viewed as downside support</h2>
As <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-signs-bitcoin-parabolic-phase-250k-target-begin" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Cointelegraph continues to report</a>, market participants still see all-time highs coming for Bitcoin.
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-election-fed-rate-cut-5-things-bitcoin-this-week" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">US election vs. Fed rate cut — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week</a>
Some forecasts predict a major price discovery event in the coming months, including a trip to <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-analyst-100k-btc-price-february-completely-within-reason" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">$100,000 in early 2025</a>.
Last week, BTC/USD narrowly missed matching its current record set in March.
“If things start breaking down, don’t rule out the possibility of a trip to the 50-Week Moving Average and potentially the Macro Trend Line,” Material Indicators warned in its post.
The 50-week SMA currently sits at $59,200, data from <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*7499wx*_ga*MTQ0MzQ0NzI4Ny4xNzE2MzY1NTA0*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTcxNjM2NTUwNC4xLjEuMTcxNjM2Njg2MC4wLjAuMA.." rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCEUR/?exchange=BINANCE" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">TradingView</a> shows.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin price needs 2 months to return 'above macro trend' — Forecast" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-11/0192fb19-062f-7b0a-8fea-a2ac2f53d4c0" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD 1-week chart with 50SMA. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price needs 2 months to return 'above macro trend' — Forecast

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