Republican

Peter Todd

Adam Back

Questions have arisen around Bitcoin’s fair value after a popular economist predicted that the world’s first cryptocurrency may never fall below $60,000.
Bitcoin’s (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">BTC</a>) price could settle above the $60,000 psychological mark, according to economist and trader Alex Krüger, who wrote in a Nov. 5 X <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/krugermacro/status/1853782266134094214" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">post</a>:
<blockquote>
 “50% probability of Bitcoin never trading below 60K again.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin’s fair value: BTC may never fall below $60K, says economist" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-11/0192fc9a-3af6-76a5-9979-ba4a936d99b0" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/krugermacro/status/1853782266134094214" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/krugermacro/status/1853782266134094214">Alex Krüger</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The economist’s prediction came on <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-elections" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">United States Election Day</a>, which has placed additional attention on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. On Nov. 4, Bitcoin bottomed out above $66,815 before recovering above $68,750 as of 1:37 pm UTC on Nov. 5.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin’s fair value: BTC may never fall below $60K, says economist" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-11/0192fc9a-7cfe-7181-985a-1f5e3a8e3b8d" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin/USD, 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Some analysts expect the post-election volatility to lead to a Bitcoin breakout to new all-time highs. Notably, Bitfinex analysts predict a <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-80k-derivatives-signal-98-bitcoin-holders-profit" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Bitcoin rally to $80,000</a> before the end of 2024, driven by the options market structure and the prospect of a Republican presidential victory.
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-win-confirmed-jim-cramer-predict-harris-win" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-win-confirmed-jim-cramer-predict-harris-win">Trump win confirmed? Jim Cramer says markets predict Harris win</a>
<h2 id="bitcoin-s-floor-price-crossed-40-000-adam-back">Bitcoin’s “floor price” crossed $40,000: Adam Back</h2>
Some metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s floor price may be above $40,000, including the 200-week moving average — a popular technical indicator used to determine long-term market trends, by removing the daily volatility.
This key indicator crossed the $40,000 mark on Oct. 18, according to <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/top-people-in-crypto-and-blockchain-2021/adam-back" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Adam Back</a>, co-founder and CEO of Blockstream and the inventor of Hashcash.
Back wrote in an Oct. 20 X <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/adam3us/status/1847945253044580746/photo/1" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">post</a>:
<blockquote>
 “The Bitcoin 200 week moving average, effectively the bitcoin floor ‘up only’ price crossed $40k. You can view it as roughly the bitcoin floor price without the volatility, at least historically.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin’s fair value: BTC may never fall below $60K, says economist" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-11/0192fc9c-8c25-7654-b7aa-a21fecfcc77c" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin 200-week moving average. Source: Adam Back
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/stablecoins-essential-for-us-dollar-future-paxos-ceo" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/stablecoins-essential-for-us-dollar-future-paxos-ceo">Stablecoins essential for US dollar’s future, says Paxos CEO</a>
Others argue that Bitcoin’s cumulative value coin days destroyed (CVDD) is a better metric to determine Bitcoin’s floor price, or “absolute market bottom.”
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin’s fair value: BTC may never fall below $60K, says economist" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-11/0192fc9c-f155-79aa-83e9-201ce9db40bb" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin/USD, 1-week chart, CVDD. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s CVDD stands at $26,520, TradingView <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.tradingview.com/script/qxytt0NI-CVDD-Coin-Value-Days-Destroyed-for-Bitcoin-BTC-Logue/" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">data</a> shows.<iframe width="100%" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tthVp0Vascs" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Harris vs. Trump 2024: What’s at Stake for the Crypto Market? Source: Cointelegraph/YouTube
Magazine: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/microsoft-bitcoin-vote-peter-todd-satoshi-bitfinex-wallet-hack-hodlers-digest/" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/microsoft-bitcoin-vote-peter-todd-satoshi-bitfinex-wallet-hack-hodlers-digest/">Microsoft set to vote on Bitcoin, Peter Todd hiding, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 20–26</a>

Bitcoin’s fair value: BTC may never fall below $60K, says economist

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