Crypto X

Bitcoin

<h4>Wen $100,000, Fam? That’s a question you see on Crypto X often these days. When will Bitcoin hit $100,000?</h4> 
It could be today, next week, or months from now. Today, we present 4 possible scenarios so you can see for yourself what will likely happen to the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in the near term. 
<h5>Scenario 1: On or Before January 20th</h5> 
This first one is the easiest. But why January 20th? That’s Inauguration Day for the US. Trump takes over the White House then as well as the agencies that oversee crypto in the US. We are already seeing the effect on <a href="https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/?s=crypto+markets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">crypto markets</a> of his election like the huge pump the weekend after the results came out. 
As Trump and his transition team work on figuring out who to nominate to various positions in the new government and what priorities they will have, they can have a BIG influence on markets. For example, Bitcoin bull, Senator Bill Hagerty from TN, is on the shortlist for Treasury Secretary. That’s the department that oversees the SEC. 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> 
 I‘m told Senator Hagerty has emerged as frontrunner for Treasury Secretary. Would be brilliant move by President Trump. If it happens, back up the truck and dump everything you own into Bitcoin <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/15.0.3/72x72/1f680.png" alt="🚀" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;"> 
 — David Bailey<img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/15.0.3/72x72/1f1f5-1f1f7.png" alt="🇵🇷" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;"> $0.85mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidFBailey/status/1859440650057343070?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 21, 2024</a>
</blockquote> 
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And as for the SEC, Gensler is leaving so that’s addition by subtraction. A few names are floating around as the possible head of the agency including: 
<ul> 
 <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href="https://x.com/bitruvianman/status/1858631925658763406" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce</a> is well-liked and respected in the industry.</li> 
 <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><a href="https://x.com/oroogle/status/1858622023372591546" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brian Brooks</a> of Hedera Hashgraph.</li> 
 <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Others who are much friendlier and more balanced for the industry than we’ve had before.</li> 
</ul> 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> 
 FOX: SEC head candidates under Trump – ‘all crypto fanatics,’ say experts. <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/15.0.3/72x72/1f680.png" alt="🚀" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;"> Will the next SEC chief change the crypto game? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Crypto?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Crypto</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SEC?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SEC</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Trump?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Trump</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Blockchain?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Blockchain</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CryptoRegulation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CryptoRegulation</a> <a href="https://t.co/atwOpJcwuK">pic.twitter.com/atwOpJcwuK</a> 
 — Solix Trading (@Solix_Trade) <a href="https://twitter.com/Solix_Trade/status/1858740380046397735?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 19, 2024</a>
</blockquote> 
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There’s no question that quality names listed to lead these important positions could cause a pump in the market. This is also the best time of year for the market in most years. Q4 is often very active with people trading often and making moves to set themselves up for the new year. 
All this, plus the trend is our friend. We are in a bull trend now and in the middle of a bull cycle. It will take something negative to pull the market out of it. Otherwise, it will just move on and then go past $100,000. It is only an 8-10% move from here. It’s not like we are at $50,000 and speculating about it Bitcoin could 2x or not. 
Our take is this is the most likely result. But you should check out what else could happen if unexpected news comes out in these other scenarios. 
<h5>Scenario 2: Spring/Summer 2025</h5> 
Our 2nd scenario is similar but a little more nuanced than Scenario 1. Here, we have to wait until the spring or summer of 2025 to pass $100,000. Why would this happen? Well take some of the good we talked about in Scenario 1 but mix in some bad news, too. Like maybe a less pro-crypto Treasury Secretary nomination. 
Note this chart on Bitcoin for the 6 months between March and September of this year. Even in a <a href="https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/?s=bull+market" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bull market</a>, sideways trading can and does happen. Sometimes for months. It does not negate the larger bull trend.&nbsp; 
But it does mean we might have to wait a little bit. So this is a possibility. Our take is this is less likely to happen than Scenario 1, but it’s still a realistic option. 
<h5>Scenario 3: Before October 2025</h5> 
In this scenario, we look at sometime before October 2025. The significance of this date is the current 4-year cycle theory of Bitcoin. Popularized by Plan B, it says to buy Bitcoin 6 months before the halving and hold until 18 months after the halving. That 2 year period is the bull cycle. The remaining 2 years until 6 months before the next halving in 2028 is the bear cycle. 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> 
 Stock-to-Flow model (grey) is prediction, because we know future S2F-ratio. Market Cycle model (color) is detection, because it’s based on counting specific onchain txs, and we only know current (and past) utxo set. 
 IMO: <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/15.0.3/72x72/1f535.png" alt="🔵" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;"> slow rise towards April 2024 halving <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/15.0.3/72x72/1f7e2.png" alt="🟢" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;"> after halving <a href="https://t.co/xKJ1qHwcpO">pic.twitter.com/xKJ1qHwcpO</a> 
 — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) <a href="https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1720459489562824973?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 3, 2023</a>
</blockquote> 
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So the halving was in April. That means buying in October 2023 and holding until October 2025. That’s where the number comes from. ETF buyers, Microstrategy, and a possible <a href="https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/?s=Bitcoin+Reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bitcoin Reserve</a> by the US or other countries could all invalidate the cycle theory by having the bull cycle go longer. 
&nbsp; 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> 
 BREAKING: Bitcoin ETF, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24IBIT&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$IBIT</a>, becomes the fastest ETF in history to hit $40 billion in assets under management. 
 It took <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24IBIT&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$IBIT</a> just 211 days to hit the $40 billion threshold. 
 By comparison, the second fastest ETF took 1,253 days to hit $40 billion, or ~6 TIMES longer.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a>… <a href="https://t.co/RY0LW16WxE">pic.twitter.com/RY0LW16WxE</a> 
 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href="https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1857455840245993713?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 15, 2024</a>
</blockquote> 
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>But this cycle theory has been pretty accurate for previous cycles, and it could be again. So it’s good to make a note of this. Our take is this is the least likely to happen of the 3 scenarios presented so far. The idea of having to wait until next Fall to get to $100,000. 
<h5>Scenario 4: Not Until Next Cycle</h5> 
This is the 4th, and I think least likely, scenario. In this one, Bitcoin does NOT hit $100,000 in this bull cycle. So what could happen so that Bitcoin does not go 8-10% higher to crack $100,000? The most likely thing that happens when Bitcoin does not reach $100,000 is something external to Bitcoin and its market. 
<ul> 
 <li>Geo-Political Events: For example, if either the Israel-Iran conflict OR the more likely Ukraine-Russia conflict escalates when <a href="https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/?s=trump" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trump</a> takes office in January, then that could lead to a lot of unrest and uncertainty in markets around the world.</li> 
</ul> 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> 
 BREAKING: 
 Russia confirms that Ukraine launched six U.S.-made long-range missiles within its territory. <a href="https://t.co/t3BE5O0KKq">pic.twitter.com/t3BE5O0KKq</a> 
 — Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/GlobeEyeNews/status/1858861921476182280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 19, 2024</a>
</blockquote> 
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And that would include Bitcoin. Bitcoin has always fought off geopolitical events to go higher. But there could always be a first time. 
<ul> 
 <li>Deep US Recession:&nbsp;As&nbsp;with geopolitical events, another area that could hurt Bitcoin’s price is a long, deep, protracted US recession.</li> 
</ul> 
For reasons difficult to explain and well beyond the scope of this video, somehow the US has stayed out of a recession the last 2 years. Nearly all of the rest of the world has had one or is still in one, aside from insulated markets like <a href="https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/?s=Dubai" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dubai</a> and Singapore. But the US has avoided it. 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> 
 Trying to replace income taxes with tariff revenue would cost jobs, ignite inflation, increase federal deficits, &amp; cause a recession— &amp; shift the tax burden away from the well off, substantially increasing the tax burden on the poor &amp; middle class.<a href="https://t.co/wWGfGIn5Bi">https://t.co/wWGfGIn5Bi</a> 
 — Peterson Institute (@PIIE) <a href="https://twitter.com/PIIE/status/1857872266593267826?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 16, 2024</a>
</blockquote> 
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Many believe Trump’s declaration of import tariffs could take the US into recession faster than leaving the economy alone. Even these potential outcomes are things Bitcoin has shrugged off before. Or at least when Bitcoin takes a hit, it bounces back. 
What do you think would keep Bitcoin from hitting $100,000 this cycle? Or will it get there? Let us know in the comments below. 
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<h6>Disclaimer</h6> 
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment, and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies are thoughts and opinions relevant to the accepted levels of risk tolerance of the writer/reviewers and their risk tolerance may be different than yours. We are not responsible for any losses that you may incur as a result of any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments so please do your due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd. 
The post <a href="https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/cryptocurrency-news/is-bitcoin-btc-going-to-150000-in-2024/">Is Bitcoin (BTC) Going to $150,000 in 2024?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.altcoinbuzz.io">Altcoin Buzz</a>.

Is Bitcoin (BTC) Going to $150,000 in 2024?

Altcoin Buzz

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