Republican

bullish

United

Bitcoin

when

The cryptocurrency market’s bullish momentum may slow after United States President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025, according to data on historical market performance during US election years.
In the US, stocks — and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) — perform well in the weeks after a presidential election and then cool off once the President-elect takes office, according to data from Bloomberg and researcher Macrobond Financial.
This is especially pronounced when the incumbent president is a Republican, according to data from TS Lombard, a research group. The Republican party is typically seen as more business-friendly, sparking greater post-election market euphoria.
“[I]nvestors should tactically fade a postelection rally should the S&amp;P 500 exceed our 6100 year-end bull case target, which roughly aligns with a +5% index move from election day,” Scott Chronert, Citi’s US equity strategist, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/stocks-rally-looks-safe-for-now-it-could-stall-after-inauguration-day/ar-AA1tTt5V?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds&amp;apiversion=v2&amp;noservercache=1&amp;domshim=1&amp;renderwebcomponents=1&amp;wcseo=1&amp;batchservertelemetry=1&amp;noservertelemetry=1" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/stocks-rally-looks-safe-for-now-it-could-stall-after-inauguration-day/ar-AA1tTt5V?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds&amp;apiversion=v2&amp;noservercache=1&amp;domshim=1&amp;renderwebcomponents=1&amp;wcseo=1&amp;batchservertelemetry=1&amp;noservertelemetry=1">reportedly</a> wrote in a November research note.
The data shows market performance rebounding after an initial post-inauguration correction.
<figure><img alt="Trump’s inauguration could mark local top for crypto, research shows" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-12/0193891a-7f07-77ba-87ef-41636ec56026" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/EricSoda/status/1855659605281366345" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/EricSoda/status/1855659605281366345">Eric Soda</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/investors-crypto-markets-peaking-h2-2025" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/investors-crypto-markets-peaking-h2-2025">Investors see crypto markets peaking in H2 2025: Survey</a>
<h3 id="post-election-rally">Post-election rally</h3>
As of Dec. 2, the S&amp;P 500 index stands at 6,047, a nearly 4.5% gain since Nov. 5, according to Google Finance.
Cryptocurrencies saw big gains after Trump’s election victory, as many say his win will benefit the industry,&nbsp;<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-influence-of-the-2024-us-elections-on-the-crypto-market-report" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-influence-of-the-2024-us-elections-on-the-crypto-market-report">Cointelegraph Research said</a>.
Bitcoin’s price bump has been especially pronounced, with a more than 30% post-election gain for the world’s most popular cryptocurrency. Solana (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/solana-price-index" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/solana-price-index">SOL</a>) clocked similar gains.
Other analysts believe Bitcoin’s rally will continue post-inauguration, though there will be bumps along the way. According to Ryan Lee, the chief analyst at Bitget Research, the BTC price could correct as deep as 30% before resuming its bullish run.
“Historical data trends show that Bitcoin may still correct as much as 30% before it reaches its cyclical top,” the <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-30-correction-ahead-100k-btc-rally-analysts" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-30-correction-ahead-100k-btc-rally-analysts">analyst told Cointelegrap</a>h on Nov. 27.
Such a correction would hypothetically tank Bitcoin to around $70,000 per coin.
Investors expect the cryptocurrency bull run to continue into 2025 and peak in the second half of the year, MV Global, a Web3 investing firm, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/investors-crypto-markets-peaking-h2-2025" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/investors-crypto-markets-peaking-h2-2025">told Cointelegraph</a>.
<figure><img alt="Trump’s inauguration could mark local top for crypto, research shows" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-12/01938917-f88a-701d-b7e0-484239585562" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/TS_Lombard/status/1853427981160534230" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/TS_Lombard/status/1853427981160534230">TS Lombard</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h3 id="weakening-correlations">Weakening correlations?</h3>
Historically, Bitcoin has been “considered a high-risk asset closely linked to US equities” —particularly Nasdaq, an index of US technology stocks — but that relationship has weakened in recent months, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/11-18-2024-bitcoin-s-correlation-with-u-s-equities-and-ether-hits-multi-year-lows-16403063301986" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/11-18-2024-bitcoin-s-correlation-with-u-s-equities-and-ether-hits-multi-year-lows-16403063301986">according</a> to Binance Research.
“Since March 2024, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq on a 30-day rolling basis dropped to 0.46, one of the lowest levels in five years,” Binance said.
Still, a nearly 50% correlation with US stocks means substantial exposure for BTC to any broader market downturn.
Ether’s (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-priceprice" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-priceprice">ETH</a>) correlation with the Nasdaq is even higher, at around 0.66, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/ETH.CC--compareProfile--NASDX" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/ETH.CC--compareProfile--NASDX">according </a>to data from MacroAxis.com.
Magazine: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/cz-hits-back-at-wsj-hong-kong-crypto-etfs-take-50b-equivalent-asia-express/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">Binance hits back at WSJ, Hong Kong crypto ETF’s take ‘$50B equivalent’: Asia Express</a>

Trump’s inauguration could mark local top for crypto, research shows

Table of Contents

Cointelegraph

Other articles published on Dec 2, 2024

XRP Price Hits $2 in Epic Bullish Move; 1,003,000,000 SHIB Burned in Single Hour; Raoul Pal Issue...

Comparing BlockDAG’s $153M and DTX Exchange’s $8.3M Presales: Which Offers Greater Returns?

Experts Call Pepe Unchained The Best Meme Coin To Buy Right Now With Only 10 Days Left In Crypto ...

15 Top Performing Crypto Projects in November 2024

BREAKING: Coinbase Adds Long-Awaited Altcoin to Its Roadmap to List

Coinbase exec sees stablecoin rules becoming clear in 2025

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!