Republican

bullish

<p>The historical data suggests that crypto markets generally experience a slowdown after the U.S. presidential inauguration. A new study by TS Lombard sheds light on this cyclical phenomenon, particularly pronounced during Republican transitions.</p>
<h2 id="h-l-investiture-de-trump-pourrait-freiner-la-hausse-du-marche-crypto">Trump’s inauguration could slow the rise of the crypto market</h2>
<p>The analysis of American electoral cycles reveals a recurring pattern for financial markets. Experts from Bloomberg and Macrobond Financial have identified a clear trend: risky assets, including <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/crypto-the-numbers-that-could-change-everything-this-week/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">cryptos, typically record strong gains</a> in the weeks following the presidential election, before taking a pause after the inauguration. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced during Republican victories, as emphasized by a recent study from TS Lombard.</p>
<div class="my-4">
 <div class="ads " data-page-type="" data-location="1">
 </div>
</div>
<p>Scott Chronert, a strategist at Citi, also recommends caution in the face of a potential post-election rally. The analyst particularly suggests taking profits if the S&amp;P 500 exceeds 6100 points, which is about 5% above current levels.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/market-data-hints-local-top-trump-inauguration" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">data</a> also shows that this consolidation period is only temporary, with a recovery typically observed a few months after the new president’s installation.</p>
<div class="affiliate-button"><a class="affiliate-button__link" href="https://coinbase-consumer.sjv.io/c/2801338/552039/9251" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Your 1st cryptos with Coinbase</a> <a class="affiliate-button__disclaimer" href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/sponsored-content/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">This link uses an affiliate program.</a>
</div>
<h2 id="h-des-correlations-en-evolution">Evolving correlations</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-different-cycles-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">The current environment, however, may differ from previous cycles</a>. According to Binance’s research, the traditional correlation between bitcoin and U.S. stock markets is significantly weakening. Since March 2024, the correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the Nasdaq over 30-day rolling windows has dropped to 0.46, a five-year low.</p>
<p>Ethereum, however, maintains a higher correlation with U.S. tech stocks, around 0.66 according to MacroAxis.com. This divergence suggests a possible maturation of the bitcoin market, which may now react differently to U.S. political events.</p>
<p>Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, nevertheless anticipates a potential 30% correction in bitcoin before the resumption of a new bullish cycle, which could bring its price back to around 70,000 dollars.</p>
<p>The consensus among investors, according to MV Global, predicts a continuation of the rise of the <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/xrp-hits-1-93-breaking-a-seven-year-record/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">crypto market</a> until the second half of 2025, after the new president’s installation. This outlook tempers fears of a prolonged negative impact of the political transition on the sector.</p>

Why The Crypto Market Could Drop After Trump’s Inauguration

Table of Contents

Cointribune EN

Other articles published on Dec 3, 2024

Teresa Goody Guillén Considered for SEC Chair Amid Trump’s Pro-Crypto Push

Chainlink Skyrockets 1,219% in Whale Activity as LINK Price Suddenly Jumps 31%

NFT Marketplace: A Comprehensive Guide to the World of Digital Assets

IOTA Unveils Rebased Proposal with Staking Rewards and Lower Fees – Vote Now

WiFi Map Celebrates 190 Million Users: $WIFI Token at the Center of a Connectivity Revolution

Best Meme Coins for Exponential Returns: Why BTFD, SPX6900, and Shiba Inu Are Taking 2024 by Storm

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!