Long

Bitcoin

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Bitcoin’s climb toward $100,000 has seen a significant amount of offloads from long-term holders, which some analysts say signals a potential top that could turn markets bearish and catch traders offside when buy-side demand starts to wane.
“It’s a game of musical chairs: enjoy the ride, but be prepared when the music stops,” CryptoQuant contributor Maartuun said in a Dec. 8 X <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/JA_Maartun/status/1865773018296787076" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">post</a>.
<h2 id="long-term-hodlers-are-offloading-their-bitcoin">Long-term hodlers are offloading their Bitcoin</h2>
Since Nov. 8, long-term holders — wallets who have held Bitcoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">BTC</a>)&nbsp; for at least 155 days — have sold 827,783 BTC worth around $82.6 billion at its current price of around $99,200.
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies, Markets" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-12/0193a9c7-9dbd-7e62-933d-56293a788813" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/JA_Maartun/status/1865773018296787076" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/JA_Maartun/status/1865773018296787076">Maartuun</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Maartuun highlighted the 149,800 BTC purchased by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy and the 84,193 BTC worth of inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the same period.&nbsp;
Still, he said that these are the equivalent of just 30% of what’s being sold by long-term holders.
“The overall market is much larger than just them,” he said.
Maartuun suggested that Bitcoin is maintaining its strength despite the strong sell pressure from long-term holders due to retail demand also reaching its “yearly highs,” according to CryptoQuant’s retail demand 30-day change chart.
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies, Markets" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-12/0193a9c4-9416-7a6d-8397-1969ed92b700" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/JA_Maartun/status/1865773018296787076" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="https://x.com/JA_Maartun/status/1865773018296787076">Maartuun</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
“Retail is also involved in futures trading,” he said. CoinGlass <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/Cryptofutures" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">shows</a> Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) — a metric tracking the total number of unsettled Bitcoin derivative contracts such as options and futures — is $61.2 billion at the time of publication.
<h2 id="long-term-bitcoin-holders-sitting-on-significant-unrealized-profits">Long-term Bitcoin holders sitting on significant unrealized profits</h2>
Maartuun also claimed that the sell-side risk ratio and the net taker volume may indicate “a top.”
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-dominance-altseason-xrp-rally-2025" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Bitcoin dominance hints at ‘altseason,’ analysts eye XRP price rally into 2025</a>
According to Bitbo <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://charts.bitbo.io/realized-price/" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">data</a>, the Long Term Holder realized price — the average price paid by long-term Bitcoin holders — is $24,481, representing about a 400% average gain for long-term holders.
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies, Markets" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-12/0193a9c6-673e-792c-8284-e9f05522d3ad" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/JA_Maartun/status/1865773018296787076" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="https://x.com/JA_Maartun/status/1865773018296787076">Maartuun</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s price was $99,203, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">according</a> to CoinMarketCap.
On Dec. 6, Real Vision chief <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-metric-bearish-october-warns-analyst-10k-dip" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said liquidity conditions</a>, as expressed by his Bitcoin MSI macro model, suggest pain may come next.
“Bitcoin has hit new ATHs in the face of a deteriorating liquidity backdrop,” he said.
Coutt said if conditions “worsen, the rally, while euphoric, can only last for a limited time.”
Magazine: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/normie-degens-go-all-in-on-sports-fan-crypto-tokens-for-the-rewards/" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">‘Normie degens’ go all in on sports fan crypto tokens for the rewards</a>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

‘Potential top’ for Bitcoin as long-term holders sell 828K BTC in 30 days

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