2024

Prime

<p>The French Republic is experiencing a new institutional upheaval with the forced appointment of François Bayrou as Prime Minister. Is the Fifth Republic about to fall? Yes.</p> 
<h2 id="h-bayrou-facing-the-regime-crisis">Bayrou facing the regime crisis</h2> 
<p>The morning of December 13, 2024, will go down in political history as the symbol of a regime in <strong><a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/macron-has-totally-ruined-france/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">full decomposition</a>.</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Emmanuel Macron</strong> ultimately had to yield to the pressure from the head of MoDem. The sequence of events: at 5 a.m., the president calls François Bayrou to inform him that he will not be Prime Minister, preferring <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_Lescure" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Roland Lescure</a>.</p> 
<p><strong>Bayrou’s reaction is immediate</strong> <strong>: he rushes to the Élysée for a tense 1 hour and 45-minute meeting with the president.</strong></p> 
<p>During this confrontation, the centrist leader <strong>brandishes the threat of withdrawing the 36 MoDem deputies from the presidential majority.</strong> Faced with this political blackmail, Emmanuel Macron ultimately folds, creating a historic precedent: <strong>a Prime Minister imposes himself against the initial will of the president.</strong></p> 
<h2 id="h-francois-bayrou-expert-in-political-maneuvering">François Bayrou: expert in political maneuvering</h2> 
<p>The very personality of François Bayrou raises questions. <strong>Presented as a moderate capable of uniting</strong>, his political career rather reveals a <strong>polarizing figure.</strong></p> 
<p>His governmental experience dates back to the 90s, where he was Minister of National Education. Since then, he has maintained his presence on the political scene mainly <strong>thanks to his central position and strategic alliances, including his support for Emmanuel Macron in 2017.</strong></p> 
<p>His recent acquittal in a parliamentary assistants case in February 2024 allowed him to return to the forefront of the political scene. <strong>Previously sidelined at the Planning Commission</strong>, Bayrou immediately attempted to resume his frustrated ambitions, <strong>specifically targeting Matignon following Élisabeth Borne’s departure.</strong></p> 
<h2 id="h-a-parliamentary-majority-more-fragile-than-ever">A parliamentary majority more fragile than ever</h2> 
<p>The parliamentary base of the new Prime Minister appears particularly narrow. With only <strong>36 MoDem deputies</strong>, François Bayrou has a weaker parliamentary support than his predecessor Michel Barnier, <strong>who could count on around 45 LR deputies.</strong> This numerical fragility is accompanied by major political tensions.</p> 
<p>The Socialists have announced their intention not to vote for censure, <strong>but this position may evolve if La France Insoumise submits a motion.</strong></p>
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<p>The National Rally, while claiming not to want to censure “a priori”, could hardly justify support for Bayrou to its electorate.</p> 
<h2 id="h-attal-against-bayrou">Attal against Bayrou</h2> 
<p>The new Prime Minister must also face opposition within his own presidential camp. <strong>Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, and Bruno Le Maire, all of whom nurture presidential ambitions</strong>, have no interest in seeing Bayrou succeed.</p> 
<p>A success at Matignon could indeed <strong>position him as a potential candidate for 2027.</strong></p> 
<p>This situation recalls the fate of Michel Barnier, whose brief time at Matignon was undermined by rival ambitions. <strong>For Bayrou, the situation appears even more complex as he operates on the same political terrain as his potential competitors.</strong></p> 
<h2 id="h-the-end-of-democracy-in-france">The end of democracy in France</h2> 
<p>The appointment of François Bayrou comes in a context of profound <strong>crisis of democratic legitimacy. The polls are damning: 77% of French people did not wish for his appointment</strong> as Prime Minister.</p> 
<p>Even more seriously, nearly <strong>two-thirds of French people declare themselves in favor of Emmanuel Macron’s resignation.</strong></p> 
<p>This situation creates an institutional paradox: <strong>a deeply weakened president continues to exercise sole power over the appointment of the Prime Minister,</strong> even as his popular legitimacy is strongly contested. The accelerated succession of Prime Ministers illustrates this growing instability:</p> 
<ul> 
 <li>Édouard Philippe: 3 years</li> 
 <li>Jean Castex: 2 years</li> 
 <li>Élisabeth Borne: 1.5 years</li> 
 <li>Gabriel Attal: 6 months</li> 
 <li>Michel Barnier: 3 months</li> 
</ul> 
<p>This trend toward shorter terms portends <strong>a particularly brief duration for the Bayrou government.</strong></p> 
<h2 id="h-bayrou-and-the-budget-challenge">Bayrou and the budget challenge</h2> 
<p>The new Prime Minister must face crucial deadlines in the very short term. <strong>The vote on the 2025 budget represents a major test</strong> <strong>for his ability to build majorities.</strong></p> 
<p>Without an approved budget, <strong>the operation of the state could be severely disrupted.</strong></p> 
<p>François Bayrou has already indicated that <strong>immigration and pensions would not be among the government’s priorities.</strong> This position seems out of step with the major concerns of the French, risking <strong>to further widen the gap between the rulers and the ruled.</strong></p> 
<h2 id="h-bayrou-like-an-echo-of-wilhelm-ii">Bayrou: like an echo of Wilhelm II</h2> 
<p>The current situation bears troubling similarities to the <strong>end of the German Empire in 1918.</strong> At that time, Kaiser Wilhelm II, faced with a deteriorating political situation, appointed Max of Baden as Chancellor in an attempt to parliamentary the regime. <strong>A month later, the regime collapsed</strong>.</p> 
<p>These historical parallels suggest that Bayrou’s appointment could mark not a solution to the crisis, <strong>but a new step in the decomposition of the regime of the Fifth Republic.</strong></p> 
<h2 id="h-the-republic-will-fall">The Republic will fall</h2> 
<p>If the Bayrou government were to fall quickly, two scenarios could emerge:</p> 
<ul> 
 <li>The use of Article 16 by Emmanuel Macron, already mentioned by some legal experts</li> 
 <li>The resignation of the president, pushed by a major social and political crisis</li> 
</ul> 
<p>In any case, the appointment of François Bayrou appears less as a solution than as a new symptom of the deep crisis affecting the <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/fall-of-the-barnier-government-what-economic-consequences-for-france/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">institutions</a> of the Fifth Republic. Are we at the twilight of the 5th?</p>

Bayrou: The Republic Is About to Fall!

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