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<p>As BlackRock sees the recession as a springboard for bitcoin, the Federal Reserve cools the enthusiasm of crypto. Between bold predictions and economic warnings, the market navigates murky waters.</p>
<h2 id="h-why-the-crisis-could-boost-bitcoin">Why the crisis could boost bitcoin</h2>
<p>Robbie Mitchnick, crypto strategist at <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/is-bitcoin-really-risky-blackrock-shatters-the-myth/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BlackRock</a>, threw a stone into the pond: a recession would be a “great catalyst” for bitcoin. An iconoclastic reasoning, but rooted in history.</p>
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<p>Since 2008, systemic crises have often propelled alternative assets. Stimulus plans, low rates, and the explosion of public deficits traditionally fuel distrust towards fiat currencies. Bitcoin, perceived as “anti-crash insurance”, would benefit from this.</p>
<p>Yet, this optimistic perspective masks a darker reality. <a href="https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1902284205658427709" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Mitchnick</a> also mentions the risks of “social disorder” in the event of a recession.</p>
<p>An explosive variable, often absent from economic models. Bitcoin, a refuge in times of chaos, could capitalize on the collapse of trust in institutions. A hypothesis reminiscent of its rise during the lockdowns of 2020, where it surged against massive monetary printing.</p>
<p>BlackRock doesn’t stop there. Larry Fink, its CEO, openly links Trump’s trade policies to a risk of stagflation. For him, bitcoin embodies a hedge against this nightmarish scenario.</p>
<p>An audacious bet, even as the price dropped to $85,000 after peaking at $110,000 in January. Volatility remains king, but BlackRock’s bitcoin ETFs, which hold $50 billion, prove that the institution believes in the maturation of the market.</p>
<h2 id="h-the-fed-strikes-back-a-warning-that-cools-crypto-enthusiasm">The Fed strikes back: a warning that cools crypto enthusiasm</h2>
<p>Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, recently tempered enthusiasm. “The risks of recession have increased but remain moderate,” he stated, highlighting stubborn inflation and frozen interest rates.</p>
<p>A cautious speech, but heavy with implications: the Fed does not plan to play savior with hasty rate cuts. For bitcoin, often boosted by cheap credit, this is a brake.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/03/13/blackrock-ceo-issues-serious-warning-amid-1-trillion-bitcoin-and-crypto-price-sell-off/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Economists</a> agree on this. Mark Zandi of Moody’s points to Trump’s tariffs, calling them accelerators of an “inevitable” recession. Clement Bohr from UCLA goes further: the Trump administration could lead to a “deep” crisis. These alerts, coupled with recent bitcoin turmoil, illustrate a dilemma: Does bitcoin thrive because of crises… or despite them?</p>
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<p>In this context, bitcoin ETFs appear as an ambiguous barometer. Despite their meteoric success — $100 billion in assets in November — their growth has slowed since the Fed’s warnings. Institutional investors, torn between appetite for bitcoin and macroeconomic caution, adopt a sawtooth strategy. Nevertheless, BlackRock remains steadfast: its bet on a “recessionary bitcoin” remains intact, defying skeptics. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/shorts-are-exploding-on-bitcoin-large-investors-are-taking-positions/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">large </a><a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/shorts-are-exploding-on-bitcoin-large-investors-are-taking-positions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">investors are taking positions</a>.</p>

The Fed Cools Hopes For A Crisis-boosted Bitcoin

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