Stablecoin

Jerome Powell

Bitcoin

Rekt

Daily

Bitcoin heads into the end of Q1 near two-week highs as trader sentiment diverges from improving technicals.
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) market participants are positioned for a fresh BTC price dip, which could even form new multimonth lows.</li>
 <li>PCE week coincides with the last full trading week of March, and risk assets are showing a hint of optimism.</li>
 <li>When it comes to BTC price strength, RSI is increasingly demanding bullish continuation.</li>
 <li>Bitcoin’s short-term holders are under pressure amid serious unrealized losses.</li>
 <li>Stablecoin stocks on Binance hit record highs in what research hopes is a positive signal for investor confidence.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="bitcoin-traders-see-downside-reversal-next">Bitcoin traders see downside reversal next</h2>
Bitcoin is nearing a rematch with <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-2-week-highs-markets-bet-big-trump-crypto-news" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">two-week highs</a> as the week gets underway, data from <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*7499wx*_ga*MTQ0MzQ0NzI4Ny4xNzE2MzY1NTA0*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTcxNjM2NTUwNC4xLjEuMTcxNjM2Njg2MC4wLjAuMA.." rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITSTAMP" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">TradingView</a> shows.
<figure>
 <img alt="RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/0195c73d-08e5-778c-8d67-b6e30e13a942" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Among traders, however, the mood remains cautious.
Bulls have a lot to do in order to spark a reliable uptrend, they warn, and despite being up nearly 15% versus its multimonth lows from earlier this month, BTC/USD may well see a fresh drop.
“Market sentiment has been restored after hitting the short liquidations at $87.1k. Now, it could be a good opportunity for the MM to shake out the market again,” popular trader CrypNuevo wrote in his latest X analysis.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “We may see a pullback from here over the next 1-2 weeks, a retrace of this recovery.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/0195c734-469f-7614-9f67-9e89ece8eeea" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC liquidity chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
CrypNuevo eyed downside liquidity nearer $80,000 as a potentially lucrative target, advising followers to “mind the risk.”
<figure>
 <img alt="RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/0195c734-e24c-7ba6-934c-cf353194ef90" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Fellow trading account HTL-NL <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/htltimor/status/1904035513994199060" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">described</a> the near-term scenario as “not looking good” for bulls, eyeing $90,000 as a ceiling before a reversal kicks in.
Even among its more ardent supporters, the specter of the mid-$70,000 lingers. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, argues that BTC/USD could even advance to new all-time highs of $110,000 before crashing 30%.
“Again I still think we go lower before we make a run back to 88-90k resistance retest,” trader Roman meanwhile <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/Roman_Trading/status/1903949483324649626" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">added</a> on short timeframes.
Earlier, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-bitcoin-price-cant-go-higher-than-87-5-k" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Cointelegraph reported</a> on several key support trend lines in need of a reclaim as part of any BTC price recovery.
These included the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages, currently at $85,050 and $85,500, respectively.
<figure>
 <img alt="RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/0195c73c-22b9-794d-9d03-382ccf8876c4" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200 SMA, 200 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="pce-week-comes-in-the-shadow-of-tariffs">PCE week comes in the shadow of tariffs</h2>
The last full trading week of Q1 2025 gets underway with a hint of relief for risk assets as stocks end a four-week losing streak.
A wild ride for equities since the year began is finally coming to a close, and with it an even more volatile period for Bitcoin and crypto.
That said, more surprises could come before the quarterly candle close.
March 28 is the main date in traders’ diaries this week, hosting the February print of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.&nbsp;
Known to be the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, PCE <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-bounces-analyst-crypto-slump-end-march" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">came in below expectations</a> last month, with the upcoming numbers broadly expected to be identical.
Citing the Fed’s own estimates, financial market research firm Bespoke saw positive developments for risk-on sentiment developing.
“The Fed's inflation model currently estimates that headline and core for both CPI and PCE will all have 2-handles by March,” it <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/bespokeinvest/status/1902005033832439916" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">observed</a> last week.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “Makes room for further cuts.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/0195c735-f44f-785e-9ea9-c558e03caba8" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Fed target rate probabilities for June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The latest estimates from CME Group’s <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">FedWatch Tool</a> meanwhile show market odds for interest rate cuts unchanged, with the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as the likely timeframe for financial conditions to ease.
The US government’s reciprocal tariff arrangement, due to go live on April 2, could temper any optimism.
At a press conference following the <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-2-week-highs-markets-bet-big-trump-crypto-news" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">latest FOMC meeting</a> last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited tariffs as a “driving factor” in increasing inflation expectations.
“You may have seen that goods inflation moved up pretty significantly in the first two months of the year. Trying to track that back to actual tariff increases, given what was tariff and what was not, very, very challenging. So, some of it,” he said.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “The answer is clearly some of it, a good part of it is coming from tariffs.”
</blockquote>
<h2 id="rsi-signals-tease-key-btc-price-breakouts">RSI signals tease key BTC price breakouts</h2>
When it comes to early bull market continuation signals, Bitcoin is currently enjoying <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-in-position-first-rsi-breakout-6-months-85k" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">several classics at once</a>.
These all hinge on the relative strength index (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal">RSI</a>), a key momentum indicator that is in the process of breaking out across both long and short timeframes.
Market observers are keenly eyeing bullish divergences on RSI, which on weekly time frames is abandoning a downtrend in place since November 2024.
Originally spotted by trader and analyst Rekt Capital last week, the process is continuing, with RSI seeking to confirm the downtrend line as support before heading higher.
“The Daily RSI is showcasing early signs of retesting the Downtrend dating back to November 2024 as new support,” Rekt Capital wrote in his <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1903796886340772338" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">latest update</a> on the topic.
<figure>
 <img alt="RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/0195c3c8-02cd-7fd3-9942-8bdccf006d61" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/MatthewHyland_/status/1903966840541303053" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">As reported</a> by fellow analyst Matthew Hyland, BTC/USD has now confirmed a bullish divergence on the weekly chart for the first time since September last year.
<figure>
 <img alt="RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/0195c737-2c57-7087-9009-88ba25bcd3e5" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Matthew Hyland/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Daily RSI meanwhile measured 51.4 at the time of writing — above its key midpoint and fighting to hit new two-month highs.
<h2 id="bitcoin-speculators-face-a-profit-waiting-game">Bitcoin speculators face a profit waiting game</h2>
Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) — newcomer entities hodling coins for up to six months — are “under increasing pressure,” onchain analytics firm Glassnode warned.
In its <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/glassnode/status/1903146240642035879" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">latest analysis</a> on X, Glassnode showed substantial unrealized losses among the STH cohort, one traditionally more sensitive to short-term BTC price volatility.
“Unrealized losses have surged, pushing many STH coins underwater, nearing the +2σ threshold,” it noted alongside a chart that applies standard deviation to the performance of their holdings.
<figure>
 <img alt="RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/0195c737-df1d-7dc0-8d34-2a3bb711595f" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin STH unrealized loss. Source: Glassnode/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
As <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-speculators-sent-7b-to-exchanges-at-loss-in-btc-price-crash" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Cointelegraph reported</a>, recent trips to multimonth lows for BTC/USD have been accompanied by significant panic selling by these newer investors, with many choosing to exit their positions at a loss.
Zooming out, however, Glassnode observes that compared to historical extremes, current loss-making sales barely compete.
“The rolling 30-day realized loss for Bitcoin's STHs has reached $7B, marking the largest sustained loss event of this cycle,” it continued.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “However, this remains well below prior capitulation events, such as the $19.8B and $20.7B losses in 2021-22.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/0195c738-4468-7e9c-a8a4-ea289387d7e7" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin STH rolling 30-day realized loss. Source: Glassnode/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="stablecoin-reserves-offer-glimmer-of-hope">Stablecoin reserves offer glimmer of hope</h2>
Further data points to a return of investor confidence in the largest crypto exchange, Binance.
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-recovery-may-act-as-a-catalyst-for-a-rally-in-ton-avax-near-okb" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-recovery-may-act-as-a-catalyst-for-a-rally-in-ton-avax-near-okb">Bitcoin price recovery sets base for TON, AVAX, NEAR, OKB to rally</a>.
As highlighted by onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the total ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on the exchange hit <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cryptoquant.com/asset/stablecoin/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve?exchange=binance&amp;window=DAY&amp;priceScale=log&amp;metricScale=linear&amp;chartStyle=line&amp;sma=0&amp;ema=0" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">new all-time highs</a> above $31.8 billion on March 21.
“Binance remains the exchange with the highest trading volumes, making this a significant development,” contributor Darkfost wrote in one of its “<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/67e0664aa2a7203afd40e7bd-Stablecoin-on-Binance-ATH" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Quicktake</a>” blog posts on March 23.
<blockquote>
 “There are several factors behind this increase, but the most important one is likely that investors on Binance remain confident and are preparing to enter, or re-enter, the market.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/0195c739-10be-7bcc-a624-fa54e08212f5" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Binance ERC-20 stablecoin reserve. Source: CryptoQuant
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Darkfost acknowledged that Binance may be the source of additional liquidity as it prepares for a potential uptick in activity.
“Nonetheless, seeing these stablecoins remain on Binance is generally a positive signal for the market,” he concluded.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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