The Puell Multiple is a popular on-chain metric developed by David Puell. It provides insights into Bitcoin market cycles by assessing miner revenue and its implications for price movements.

The Puell Multiple is calculated as daily Bitcoin issuance (in US$) divided by the 365 day moving average of daily Bitcoin issuance (in US$). The goal is to refine Bitcoin cycle analysis by focusing on miner revenue trends and their impact on market behavior.

Many analysts believe that it helps determine Bitcoin’s bull and bear market phases based on miner profitability. A low Puell Multiple value suggests that mining is unprofitable, leading to miner capitulation, which is a common bottoming signal. Since miner rewards are cut in half during halvings, the Puell Model can be useful to help analyze post-halving supply shocks.

Two simple moving averages of the Bitcoin price are required. The first is the 111 day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The second is the 350 day Simple Moving Average multiplied by 2. Please note that this is twice the value and not a doubled price.

As explained above, we have seen in the past that when the 111 day moving average crossed upwards through the 350 day moving average x 2, it coincided with the peak price of Bitcoin.