Trump's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election surging to 70% following recent events.
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, is showing a significant shift in the odds for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
As of July 15, Donald Trump's chances of winning have reached new highs, according to the site's data.
The political landscape has been dynamic in recent months. On May 10, Polymarket showed Trump and Biden tied at 45% each. However, this equilibrium didn't last long. The June 27 debate between the two candidates proved to be a turning point, with Trump's numbers beginning to rise while Biden's declined.
Just as the political world was digesting the debate's impact, a shocking event further altered the race.
The July 13 assassination attempt on Trump sent shockwaves through the nation and the prediction markets. In just two days, Trump's odds on Polymarket skyrocketed to 70%, while Biden's plummeted to 16%.
Crypto Community's Growing Interest in the Election
These rapid changes are playing out on Polymarket, a platform that allows users to bet on event outcomes using cryptocurrency. With a current pool size of $257 million for this election market, it's clear that many are putting their money where their predictions are.
While not a scientific poll, these markets often reflect public sentiment and can provide unique insights into how events are shaping public opinion.
The crypto community is paying particularly close attention to this election due to Trump's recent supportive stance on digital currencies. The Donald has spoken very positively about crypto in general and launched his own NFT collection, called Trump Digital Trading Cards. This interest is set to intensify with Trump's scheduled appearance at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference on July 27, further emphasizing his engagement with the crypto world.
As the election approaches, the Polymarket odds serve as an interesting, if unofficial, barometer of the race. However, it's crucial to remember that prediction markets can be volatile and don't always accurately forecast election results.
This article contains links to third-party websites or other content for information purposes only (“Third-Party Sites”). The Third-Party Sites are not under the control of CoinMarketCap, and CoinMarketCap is not responsible for the content of any Third-Party Site, including without limitation any link contained in a Third-Party Site, or any changes or updates to a Third-Party Site. CoinMarketCap is providing these links to you only as a convenience, and the inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, approval or recommendation by CoinMarketCap of the site or any association with its operators. This article is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is important to do your own research and analysis before making any material decisions related to any of the products or services described. This article is not intended as, and shall not be construed as, financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s [company’s] own and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinMarketCap. CoinMarketCap is not responsible for the success or authenticity of any project, we aim to act as a neutral informational resource for end-users.
