Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has asserted that there is no evidence of market manipulation.
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has asserted that there is no evidence of market manipulation related to significant betting activity on the U.S. presidential election.
This statement follows the revelation that a French national, identified as the whale behind four accounts, invested over $45 million in bets on Donald Trump to win the election. Analysts from Presto noted that prediction markets are designed to reflect real-time public sentiment, but the current situation raises questions about market liquidity and accuracy.
Despite generating over $2.4 billion in trading volume since its launch in January, Polymarket's open interest stands at approximately $267 million, indicating a relatively illiquid market.
Kaiko analysts highlighted that while the platform experiences an average daily turnover of $65 million, this low liquidity could diminish the predictive value of the odds presented.
On Friday, a notable incident occurred when trader "GCorttell93" transferred $3 million to Polymarket and placed a large bet on Trump, causing significant slippage.
The trader acquired shares at 99.7% odds, which would yield only a 0.3% return if successful. This type of large trade can temporarily distort market odds, as demonstrated when the odds rapidly reverted to 64%.
Analysts have pointed out that while Polymarket's market odds are similar to those on regulated platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt, they should not be equated with traditional polling.
Current national polling averages show Kamala Harris leading Trump by 49% to 46%, within the margin of error.
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